MLB Bet Analyzer

Legend

Odds & Lines

FAV / DOG

Favorite or underdog based on Vegas moneyline prices.

ML price

American odds. Negative: bet that amount to win $100. Positive: win that amount on a $100 bet.

-1.5 / +1.5

Runline spread. -1.5 must win by 2+ runs to cover. +1.5 covers if the team loses by 1 or wins outright.

O/U

Over/Under: combined runs line set by Vegas consensus.

Model Output

Home win %

Model probability the home team wins, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

R/G L15

Average runs scored per game over the team's last 15 games.

Proj

Model's projected run total for each team.

ERA

Pitcher's Earned Run Average across their last 3 outings.

Batting Matchup

wOBA vR / vL

Weighted On-Base Average vs right or left-handed pitching. Below .280 = poor, .320 = league avg, above .370 = elite. The relevant split (matching pitcher hand) is highlighted.

Career vs SP

Plate appearances and batting average for this batter against today's specific starting pitcher.

Model Picks

Edge %

Model probability minus market implied probability. Positive means the model finds value vs. the line.

GREEN (3%+)

Strong edge -- model probability significantly exceeds the market.

YELLOW (0-3%)

Marginal edge -- slight value, not high-confidence.

RED

No value -- model probability is at or below market implied.

Legend

Odds & Lines

FAV / DOG

Favorite or underdog based on Vegas moneyline prices.

ML price

American odds. Negative: bet that amount to win $100. Positive: win that amount on a $100 bet.

-1.5 / +1.5

Runline spread. -1.5 must win by 2+ runs to cover. +1.5 covers if the team loses by 1 or wins outright.

O/U

Over/Under: combined runs line set by Vegas consensus.

Model Output

Home win %

Model probability the home team wins, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

R/G L15

Average runs scored per game over the team's last 15 games.

Proj

Model's projected run total for each team.

ERA

Pitcher's Earned Run Average across their last 3 outings.

Batting Matchup

wOBA vR / vL

Weighted On-Base Average vs right or left-handed pitching. Below .280 = poor, .320 = league avg, above .370 = elite. The relevant split (matching pitcher hand) is highlighted.

Career vs SP

Plate appearances and batting average for this batter against today's specific starting pitcher.

Model Picks

Edge %

Model probability minus market implied probability. Positive means the model finds value vs. the line.

GREEN (3%+)

Strong edge -- model probability significantly exceeds the market.

YELLOW (0-3%)

Marginal edge -- slight value, not high-confidence.

RED

No value -- model probability is at or below market implied.

MLB

MLB Bet Analyzer

Aug 6 · projections vs. lines

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All P&L shown at your unit size · 1u = your stake

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Scout AI — Moneyline picks

398-315 (56%) · +$830.72

1 today

Toronto Blue Jays
TOR @ CHC · -125
2:20 PM EDT
high

Today P&L settles as games go final

Scout Sonnet — Moneyline picks

257-207 (55%) · -$244.3

1 today

Toronto Blue Jays
TOR @ CHC · -125
2:20 PM EDT
medium

Today P&L settles as games go final

Cafecito — Runline picks

314-229 (58%) · -$879.44

1 today

TOR -1.5
TOR @ CHC · +145
2:20 PM EDT
low

Today P&L settles as games go final

Cafecito + Lineups — Runline picks

279-190 (59%) · +$931.22

1 today

TOR -1.5
TOR @ CHC · +145
2:20 PM EDT
medium

Today P&L settles as games go final

Sonnet + Scout AI — Consensus ML- (favs)

165-131 (56%) · -$1,310.8

1 today

Toronto Blue Jays
TOR @ CHC · -125
2:20 PM EDT
medium

Today P&L settles as games go final

Filtered +1.5 strategies

experimental splits of the Caf+Sonnet +1.5 consensus — small samples, tracked day by day

Caf+Sonnet +1.5 - Home dog — +1.5 RL

95-59 (62%) · -$72.45

none today

Consensus +1.5 where the home team is the underdog getting the run. Strongest single split so far.

No qualifying picks today.

Today P&L settles as games go final

Caf+Sonnet +1.5 - Home dog, total <= 8.5 — +1.5 RL

65-28 (70%) · +$969.58

none today

Home +1.5 in lower-scoring games (market total 8.5 or under). The hottest pocket - closer games let +1.5 cash.

No qualifying picks today.

Today P&L settles as games go final

Caf+Sonnet +1.5 - Home dog, juice <= -180 — +1.5 RL

43-19 (69%) · +$328.06

none today

Home +1.5 where the book charges -180 or more for the run, i.e. a real favorite on the road.

No qualifying picks today.

Today P&L settles as games go final

Caf+Sonnet +1.5 - Cafecito low conf — +1.5 RL

49-22 (69%) · +$677.07

none today

Consensus +1.5 where Cafecito tagged the pick low confidence. Counterintuitively the best confidence split.

No qualifying picks today.

Today P&L settles as games go final

Caf+Sonnet +1.5 - Away dog — +1.5 RL

101-58 (64%) · +$165.15

none today

Consensus +1.5 where the away team is the underdog. Weakest split - shown as a fade/contrast tracker.

No qualifying picks today.

Today P&L settles as games go final

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
7/31	MILAVG	4	6	3	3	10.38	L
7/25	SFAVG	3	8	1	4	21.60	L
7/19	DETHIGH	5	2	3	5	1.80	W
7/11	MINHIGH	5	3	3	1	5.40	L
7/5	BOSAVG	4	6	1	6	4.50	L

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
7/31	PHIAVG	6	5	2	5	6.35	W
7/25	ATLELIT	6	4	2	6	1.42	W
7/19	HOUHIGH	7	5	1	7	1.29	W
7/10	KCHIGH	7	8	1	5	3.86	W
7/4	CINLOW	5	8	3	5	7.20	W

vs RHP L10	QAL3.71	2.8 R/G	0.386 xwOBA
L10 overall	AVG3.82	2.5 R/G	0.384 xwOBA

vs RHP L10	QAL3.79	3.7 R/G	0.432 xwOBA
L10 overall	ACE3.12	3.7 R/G	0.419 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	RogersLHPACE	2	4	1	11	0	--
8/4	PovichLHPACE	1	11	--	11	2	0.379
8/2	MisiorowskiRHPACE	3	4	1	11	2	0.294
8/1	GasserLHPQAL	1	5	--	13	2	0.430
7/31	DrohanLHPQAL	2	4	1	10	2	0.357

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	DetmersLHPACE	5	6	3	12	2	--
8/4	RodriguezRHPPOOR	3	4	1	7	3	0.414
8/2	WheelerRHPACE	0	4	--	7	1	0.391
8/1	SánchezLHPQAL	0	3	--	14	5	0.389
7/31	PainterRHPQAL	6	6	1	9	6	0.517

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
8/1	PITAVG	5	3	5	1	5.40	L
7/26	STLLOW	6	3	4	4	3.00	W
7/20	SEAAVG	6	4	2	6	0.00	L
7/12	CHCHIGH	4	4	3	3	9.00	L
7/7	PHIHIGH	6	5	0	8	4.50	L

vs LHP L10	QAL3.80	3.5 R/G	0.394 xwOBA
L10 overall	QAL3.64	3.3 R/G	0.385 xwOBA

vs RHP L10	QAL3.60	4.3 R/G	0.451 xwOBA
L10 overall	QAL3.57	4.3 R/G	0.447 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	LowderRHPBLW	2	4	1	7	2	--
8/4	SingerRHPQAL	4	8	--	9	3	0.372
8/2	MonteroRHPQAL	0	7	--	7	3	0.318
8/1	ValdezLHPQAL	6	15	1	9	3	0.448
7/31	HoltonLHPBLW	1	3	--	7	4	0.385

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	LopezLHPAVG	3	6	1	11	1	--
8/4	GinnRHPAVG	5	5	--	7	5	0.414
8/2	KellerRHPPOOR	10	10	3	9	8	0.537
8/1	AshcraftRHPQAL	1	3	1	10	3	0.337
7/31	SkenesRHPACE	8	12	2	12	6	0.499

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
7/30	MIAPOOR	6	6	2	6	2.84	W
7/25	LADAVG	6	7	2	7	3.00	L
7/19	PHIAVG	6	2	2	10	0.00	W
7/10	BOSHIGH	6	5	2	7	0.00	L
7/5	ATLAVG	6	5	1	5	3.00	W

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
7/31	ATLHIGH	5	9	2	3	10.12	L
7/25	ARIELIT	7	6	1	2	4.05	W
7/19	ATHLOW	7	8	1	2	1.29	W
7/8	HOUHIGH	7	5	0	9	1.29	W
7/3	PITELIT	5	4	1	2	1.80	W

vs LHP L8	QAL3.55	4.5 R/G	0.413 xwOBA
L10 overall	AVG3.90	4.5 R/G	0.422 xwOBA

vs RHP L10	QAL3.76	4.3 R/G	0.365 xwOBA
L10 overall	BLW4.57	3.3 R/G	0.375 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	BibeeRHPBLW	6	8	3	16	2	--
8/4	CantilloLHPACE	6	9	3	9	3	0.535
8/2	AlcantaraRHPQAL	0	5	--	8	5	0.376
8/1	PhillipsRHPBLW	2	7	1	5	0	0.352
7/31	JunkRHPAVG	2	7	1	12	2	0.510

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	ScottRHPACE	5	11	--	13	5	--
8/4	ManaeaLHPBLW	2	7	--	8	9	0.479
8/2	KellyRHPAVG	5	8	1	8	4	0.469
8/1	DrakeLHPPOOR	8	14	2	10	3	0.509
7/31	BrattLHPPOOR	1	3	--	5	4	0.291

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	HarrisonLHPBLW	2	3	1	14	3	--
8/4	HendersonRHPACE	2	5	2	11	3	0.367
8/3	SproatRHPPOOR	4	8	--	13	4	0.345
8/2	BurnsRHPBLW	2	4	--	13	4	0.424
8/1	AbbottLHPBLW	4	6	--	3	7	0.322

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	BrownRHPBLW	5	5	2	13	2	--
8/4	WesneskiRHPAVG	2	5	--	6	2	0.314
8/3	JavierRHPBLW	3	7	1	7	0	0.307
8/2	LiberatoreLHPQAL	1	5	--	10	1	0.302
8/1	MathewsLHPPOOR	5	9	--	4	5	0.319

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
8/1	CINAVG	5	2	1	5	1.80	W
7/26	CHCELIT	6	7	2	5	6.00	W
7/20	NYYLOW	3	9	1	2	21.00	L
7/11	MILAVG	5	5	2	6	9.00	W
7/4	WSHHIGH	6	6	2	7	1.59	W

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
7/29	CHCELIT	5	1	2	3	0.00	W
7/24	CINLOW	6	7	1	8	1.50	L
7/18	ARIAVG	5	8	4	6	9.00	L
7/12	ATLAVG	4	2	4	4	4.50	L
7/6	MILAVG	5	4	0	7	0.00	L

vs RHP L10	AVG3.83	4.7 R/G	0.406 xwOBA
L10 overall	AVG4.14	3.3 R/G	0.357 xwOBA

vs RHP L10	AVG4.13	3.8 R/G	0.432 xwOBA
L10 overall	AVG3.97	4.2 R/G	0.419 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	SkenesRHPACE	4	4	1	10	6	--
8/4	JonesRHPACE	4	11	2	8	2	0.405
8/3	ChandlerRHPBLW	3	6	--	12	6	0.471
8/2	UreñaRHPAVG	0	5	--	11	5	0.399
8/1	SuterLHPQAL	3	5	1	9	4	0.384

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
8/1	NYYLOW	6	5	0	8	1.42	W
7/27	STLLOW	6	3	2	3	3.18	W
7/21	DETHIGH	7	3	1	4	0.00	W
7/9	BALAVG	5	2	4	2	1.80	L
7/3	STLAVG	4	9	3	3	24.55	L

vs LHP L6	AVG3.86	3.3 R/G	0.360 xwOBA
L10 overall	QAL3.75	3.4 R/G	0.346 xwOBA

vs RHP L10	QAL3.37	4.5 R/G	0.412 xwOBA
L10 overall	QAL3.43	5.1 R/G	0.404 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	LauerLHPQAL	7	15	2	6	0	--
8/4	SkubalLHPACE	5	9	2	8	3	0.435
8/3	WrobleskiLHPQAL	10	10	4	10	7	0.501
8/2	ColeRHPACE	1	4	--	10	6	0.437
8/1	FriedLHPACE	5	7	1	7	5	0.387

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
8/1	ATHAVG	7	9	2	6	2.57	W
7/26	KCAVG	5	4	3	4	3.60	L
7/21	CHCELIT	1	5	2	1	81.00	L
7/9	ATHAVG	7	3	0	9	1.29	W
7/2	TEXAVG	5	9	2	1	9.00	L

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
7/31	MINLOW	5	3	2	3	3.38	L
7/24	TEXHIGH	5	6	1	0	8.44	L
7/17	SFAVG	6	7	1	6	3.18	L
7/9	MIAELIT	5	9	4	3	7.20	L
7/2	LAAAVG	7	2	0	8	0.00	W

vs RHP L10	AVG4.17	5.4 R/G	0.441 xwOBA
L10 overall	BLW4.34	7.6 R/G	0.413 xwOBA

vs LHP L7	QAL3.72	5.6 R/G	0.431 xwOBA
L10 overall	QAL3.50	3.8 R/G	0.435 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	WooRHPACE	2	4	1	9	1	--
8/4	HancockRHPAVG	8	13	3	11	5	0.446
8/2	JumpLHPBLW	11	12	1	7	10	0.474
8/1	PerkinsRHPBLW	8	15	3	11	2	0.404
7/31	SpringsLHPPOOR	13	14	3	7	7	0.397

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	AndersonRHPAVG	4	7	2	3	2	--
8/4	MeltonRHPQAL	0	4	--	8	4	0.301
8/2	BradleyRHPQAL	7	14	1	5	5	0.480
8/1	PrielippLHPAVG	4	7	1	8	6	0.400
7/31	MatthewsRHPAVG	3	4	1	14	5	0.456

Date	Opp	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	W/L
8/1	BALHIGH	6	2	5	11	0.00	W
7/26	NYYLOW	6	6	3	6	4.50	W
7/20	LADAVG	5	7	0	7	5.06	W
7/11	DETELIT	7	10	1	7	2.57	W
7/6	KCAVG	3	12	1	1	24.30	L

vs LHP L10	BLW4.30	6.8 R/G	0.417 xwOBA
L10 overall	BLW4.21	3.6 R/G	0.402 xwOBA

vs RHP L10	AVG4.06	5.5 R/G	0.426 xwOBA
L10 overall	BLW4.55	5.6 R/G	0.435 xwOBA

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	PainterRHPQAL	10	10	1	11	8	--
8/4	LuzardoLHPACE	0	5	--	9	2	0.327
8/3	NolaRHPAVG	3	6	2	10	4	0.402
8/2	RitchieRHPPOOR	2	4	--	11	6	0.441
8/1	PérezLHPBLW	3	4	--	6	4	0.311

Date	Starter	R	H	HR	K	BB	xwOBA
8/5	IrvinRHPPOOR	4	5	1	5	6	--
8/4	PalmquistLHPPOOR	5	11	--	4	2	0.424
8/3	AlvarezLHPPOOR	6	5	2	6	7	0.502
8/2	BradishRHPAVG	8	9	2	4	6	0.472
8/1	BazRHPACE	5	10	--	7	4	0.402