Legend
Odds & Lines
FAV / DOG
Favorite or underdog based on Vegas moneyline prices.
ML price
American odds. Negative: bet that amount to win $100. Positive: win that amount on a $100 bet.
-1.5 / +1.5
Runline spread. -1.5 must win by 2+ runs to cover. +1.5 covers if the team loses by 1 or wins outright.
O/U
Over/Under: combined runs line set by Vegas consensus.
Model Output
Home win %
Model probability the home team wins, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
R/G L15
Average runs scored per game over the team's last 15 games.
Proj
Model's projected run total for each team.
ERA
Pitcher's Earned Run Average across their last 3 outings.
Batting Matchup
wOBA vR / vL
Weighted On-Base Average vs right or left-handed pitching. Below .280 = poor, .320 = league avg, above .370 = elite. The relevant split (matching pitcher hand) is highlighted.
Career vs SP
Plate appearances and batting average for this batter against today's specific starting pitcher.
Model Picks
Edge %
Model probability minus market implied probability. Positive means the model finds value vs. the line.
GREEN (3%+)
Strong edge -- model probability significantly exceeds the market.
YELLOW (0-3%)
Marginal edge -- slight value, not high-confidence.
RED
No value -- model probability is at or below market implied.
Legend
Odds & Lines
FAV / DOG
Favorite or underdog based on Vegas moneyline prices.
ML price
American odds. Negative: bet that amount to win $100. Positive: win that amount on a $100 bet.
-1.5 / +1.5
Runline spread. -1.5 must win by 2+ runs to cover. +1.5 covers if the team loses by 1 or wins outright.
O/U
Over/Under: combined runs line set by Vegas consensus.
Model Output
Home win %
Model probability the home team wins, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
R/G L15
Average runs scored per game over the team's last 15 games.
Proj
Model's projected run total for each team.
ERA
Pitcher's Earned Run Average across their last 3 outings.
Batting Matchup
wOBA vR / vL
Weighted On-Base Average vs right or left-handed pitching. Below .280 = poor, .320 = league avg, above .370 = elite. The relevant split (matching pitcher hand) is highlighted.
Career vs SP
Plate appearances and batting average for this batter against today's specific starting pitcher.
Model Picks
Edge %
Model probability minus market implied probability. Positive means the model finds value vs. the line.
GREEN (3%+)
Strong edge -- model probability significantly exceeds the market.
YELLOW (0-3%)
Marginal edge -- slight value, not high-confidence.
RED
No value -- model probability is at or below market implied.
MLB
MLB Bet Analyzer
Aug 5 · projections vs. lines
All P&L shown at your unit size · 1u = your stake
