Alcantara shows strong recent form with back-to-back quality starts (1.29 and 3.86 ERA), while Ashcraft is regressing after a poor last outing (10.80 ERA on 6/6). Miami's offense has been inconsistent but showed life in recent games (6.7 R/G last 3), while Pittsburgh's offense remains solid but slightly cooled (4.7 R/G last 3). This matchup favors Miami's pitching advantage despite playing on the road.

MIA projects to score approximately 3.8-4.2 runs against Ashcraft (xFIP 2.44, elite p25 range, ~6.0 IP) then a PIT bullpen (avg xFIP 3.92, near league RA/9 4.37) with limited arms; Miami's offense is HOT (5.6 R/G last 5) but xwOBA 0.353 vs wOBA 0.342 suggests production is real and sustainable, though back-to-back fatigue and Ashcraft's elite xFIP cap upside. PIT projects to score approximately 2.8-3.2 runs against Alcantara (xFIP 2.90, strong p25 range, ~5.8 IP) then a MIA bullpen (avg xFIP 4.12, slightly below league); PIT's wOBA 0.347 vs xwOBA 0.310 flags a -0.037 luck gap (contact due to regress), momentum is COLD, and Alcantara's xFIP trend is improving (3.43->2.90). Combined estimate ~6.8-7.4 runs sits below the posted 8.5 total, though the total line moved from 8.0 to 8.5 with sharp money on the over despite 70% of tickets on under. The dominant baseball signal is two starters with elite xFIPs whose ERAs are inflated by bad luck, facing offenses with meaningful regressive or sustainable signals pulling in opposite directions.

MIA is projected at approximately 4.2-4.5 runs: their last-5 average of 5.6 is partially luck-driven given wOBA/xwOBA alignment (0.353/0.354, essentially no gap), but they face Ashcraft whose xFIP of 2.44 is elite (below p25=3.36), ERA-inflated at 4.68, projecting ~6 IP, with a K% of 29.4% that is genuinely dominant; MIA's HOT momentum is real but faces a pitcher who can suppress it. PIT is projected at approximately 3.8-4.1 runs: their wOBA 0.372 vs xwOBA 0.324 shows a -0.048 luck gap (luck-driven, due to regress), their last-5 average of 4.6 is partly inflated by fortune, and they face Alcantara whose xFIP of 2.90 (below p25=3.36) is elite with ERA inflated at 5.48 (+2.58 gap); combined estimate ~8.1-8.6 runs against a posted total of 8.5. Sharp money is aggressively on the Over (total moved 8.0->8.5 with 56% of tickets on Under but sharp handle on Over), and on MIA ML (+25pp money>bets) and PIT RL (+30pp money>bets).

Bryce Miller is in an elite stretch with three consecutive scoreless starts and elite peripherals (2.31 xFIP, 35.1 K%), while Zack Littell shows concerning regression indicators with a 4.45 xFIP and elevated hard-hit rate (40.0%). Seattle's offense has been inconsistent but faces a pitcher in decline, while Washington's recent form is mixed with a 3.7 R/G average in their last 3 games vs RHP.

SEA projects to score approximately 3.8-4.2 runs facing Littell (xFIP 4.45, ~5.5 IP) and a below-average WSH bullpen (xFIP 4.69 vs league 4.37 RA/9), tempered by SEA's luck-driven wOBA/xwOBA gap (0.331 vs 0.310) and back-to-back fatigue. WSH projects to score approximately 1.8-2.2 runs facing Miller (xFIP 2.31, elite p25 tier, ~5.2 IP) with a strong SEA bullpen (xFIP 4.02), partially offset by WSH's wOBA/xwOBA reverse gap (0.298 vs 0.313, unlucky) and the 94F/wind-out environment (+0.4 runs shared). Combined estimate ~5.8-6.4 runs sits well under the posted 9.5 total, driven almost entirely by Miller's elite xFIP. Sharp money strongly favors SEA on both ML and runline, and the moneyline has held flat at -145, consistent with the market already pricing Miller's dominance.

SEA starter Bryce Miller projects as elite: xFIP 2.31 (well below p25=3.36, top tier), ERA 0.00 in 30-day window, K% 35.1, HardHit% 22.7 (league median 39.5 -- exceptional contact suppression confirming the xFIP), ~5.2 IP projected, with a rested SEA bullpen at avg xFIP 4.02 (slightly below league RA/9 4.37). WSH starter Zack Littell carries xFIP 4.45 (above p50=4.08, slightly weak tier), ERA 2.81 diverging well below xFIP suggesting regression incoming, HardHit% 40.0 (above league median -- contact quality concern), platoon split: wOBA vs L 0.282 vs R 0.192, with SEA lineup facing RHP at wOBA 0.331/xwOBA 0.310 (luck-driven +0.021 gap, slight regression expected), ~5.5 IP projected, with WSH bullpen at avg xFIP 4.69 (above league RA/9 4.37 -- below average). SEA projects ~3.5-4.0 runs; WSH projects ~1.5-2.0 runs facing Miller; combined ~5.0-6.0 runs sits well below the posted total of 9.5. Sharp money is on the runline away (-1.5) and the over, creating a divergence worth examining.

Baltimore's offense is significantly outperforming San Diego's, averaging 5.6 runs per game vs. the Padres' 3.0, with a notable edge in xwOBA (.367 vs .324). Shane Baz has been excellent in his last three starts with a 1.58 ERA, while Griffin Canning shows inconsistency and elevated hard-hit rates (52.3%), suggesting vulnerability against Baltimore's hot lineup.

BAL projects to score approximately 5.2–5.5 runs: their offense is legitimately hot (6.6 R/G last 10 vs RHP, xwOBA 0.481 confirms it's real, not luck), facing Canning who projects only ~4.3 IP (short workload hands 4.7 innings to a depleted SD bullpen with avg xFIP 3.52 — actually SD's pen is strong), wOBA 0.357/xwOBA 0.367 vs RHP confirming sustainable production. SD projects to score approximately 3.0–3.3 runs: averaging 3.2 R/G last 10 vs RHP (contact momentum COLD), facing Baz whose ERA 1.83 is massively deflated vs xFIP 4.39 (ERA-to-xFIP gap of -2.56 signals regression inbound), but Baz projects 6.2 IP deep into the game. Total projects ~8.3–8.8 runs against the 8.5 line, near-neutral with slight lean toward under given Baz's expected volume. Sharp money is heavily on BAL ML and home runline, and the over on totals.

Baltimore projects to score approximately 5.2-5.5 runs against Griffin Canning (xFIP 4.12, near p50 league average, but BB% 12.2% and HardHit% 52.3% vs league median 39.5% are concerning; projected only 4.3 IP means ~5.7 IP falls to SD's strong bullpen at avg xFIP 3.52 vs league 4.37 RA/9). San Diego projects to score approximately 3.2-3.5 runs against Shane Baz (xFIP 4.39, near p75 weak, but ERA 1.83 is -2.56 below xFIP suggesting regression risk; SD's lineup wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.326 is roughly aligned, K% 22.8% slightly above median, projected ~6.2 IP). Combined estimate of 8.4-9.0 runs sits near the posted 8.5 total with a +0.3 weather bump pushing it over. Sharp money is notably split: large-dollar action favors SD on the ML while the home runline draws heavy sharp money, and the total over draws 92% of money vs 61% of bets.

Detroit's offense has been significantly more productive than Cleveland's, averaging 6.3 runs per game over the last 10 with strong recent form (8.3 R/G in last 3). Flaherty's elite 30-day xFIP of 2.57 with 29.7% K-rate gives Detroit a clear pitching advantage over Bibee's 4.43 xFIP, despite Bibee's recent dominant outing. This matchup heavily favors the Tigers.

DET projects to score approximately 4.2-4.5 runs against Bibee (xFIP 4.43, p50 average, ~5.9 IP) and a strong CLE bullpen (xFIP 3.25, well below league RA/9 4.37); DET's offense is hot (6.0 R/G last 5) but contact is luck-driven (wOBA 0.400 vs xwOBA 0.353, -0.047 gap) warranting regression, and they're on a back-to-back. CLE projects to score approximately 2.8-3.2 runs against Flaherty (xFIP 2.57, elite near p25, ~5.1 IP) and a DET bullpen that is average-to-below (xFIP 4.29); CLE's offense has been cold (3.4 R/G last 5, L3: 2.3 R/G) against average pitching (opp xFIP 3.91), and Flaherty's xFIP trend is improving (3.30→2.57). Combined estimate ~7.2-7.7 runs vs posted line of 8.5, pointing toward the under. The market's sharp-money signal on the under (+31pp money vs bets) aligns with this read, and the ML line has moved sharply toward CLE (-110→-115) while DET moved from -110 to -2, confirming heavy market conviction on Cleveland.

DET projects to score approximately 4.2-4.5 runs against Bibee (xFIP 4.43, p50-ish avg, projected 5.9 IP) and a strong CLE bullpen (xFIP 3.25, well below league 4.37 RA/9), but DET's wOBA vs xwOBA gap (0.354 vs 0.312, -0.042 luck-driven) and back-to-back fatigue pull the estimate toward the lower end. CLE projects to score approximately 2.5-3.0 runs against Flaherty (xFIP 2.57, elite p25 or better, improving trend, projected 5.1 IP) with a DET bullpen that is avg at best (xFIP 4.29 vs league 4.37), and CLE's offense is genuinely weak vs RHP over the last 10 games (3.6 R/G, 2.3 R/G in L3). Combined estimate of roughly 6.7-7.5 runs sits below the posted 8.5 total. Sharp money has moved significantly to DET ML (+105 from -110) and CLE RL home_plus, and the total has moved from 8.0 to 8.5 despite the baseball suggesting under.

Jack Leiter is showing concerning regression with a 9.57 ERA in his last start and elevated hard-hit rate (42.2%), while Sonny Gray has been more consistent with a superior 3.60 xFIP. Texas's offense has been volatile (0-10 runs range) but averages 4.7 R/G vs RHP; Boston's offense has cooled significantly in last 3 games (3.0 R/G) despite a stronger season average. Gray's control edge and Leiter's recent struggles favor the home team.

TEX projects to score approximately 3.8-4.0 runs against Sonny Gray (xFIP 3.60, p25-equivalent elite, ~4.9 IP) and a rested BOS bullpen (xFIP 3.28, well below league RA/9 4.37); TEX offense is luck-inflated (wOBA 0.334 vs xwOBA 0.312, -0.022 gap) and on back-to-back. BOS projects to score approximately 3.4-3.6 runs against Jack Leiter (xFIP 4.09, near p50 average, ~5.6 IP) and a TEX bullpen with closer unavailable (Latz out) and two arms limited; BOS offense is cold (avg 3.0 last 5, wOBA 0.257 vs xwOBA 0.272, slightly suppressed) but faces a regression-candidate Leiter. Combined projection ~7.3-7.6 runs vs. posted total of 8.5. Sharp money is on TEX ML (money 76% vs bets 45%), BOS runline (money 95% vs bets 29%), and the under (money 92% vs bets 58%).

TEX projects ~4.1 runs facing Gray (xFIP 3.60, p25-adjacent elite, 4.9 IP projected) then a historically strong BOS bullpen (xFIP 3.28 vs league 4.37 RA/9); BOS projects ~3.6 runs facing Leiter (xFIP 4.09, near p50 average, 5.6 IP projected) with ERA 4.94 inflated above xFIP, then a TEX bullpen with closer unavailable and two arms limited. Combined estimate ~7.7 runs vs posted line of 8.5. Sharp money is on TEX ML (+16pp money over bets), BOS runline (+46pp money over bets), and the over (+28pp money over bets), creating a mixed signal -- sharp ML money on TEX conflicts with the baseball edge favoring BOS, while sharp runline money on BOS and sharp over money both conflict with the under signal from the run estimates.

This matchup features two left-handed starters showing recent volatility, with Rodriguez appearing more stable than Lodolo. Arizona's offense has performed well against LHP historically but shows recent decline, while Cincinnati's offense is inconsistent and underperforming against lefties. The park factor is neutral, and weather conditions are favorable for hitting.

ARI projects at approximately 4.2-4.4 runs: their offense averages 2.4 R/G last 5 games but xwOBA 0.371 vs wOBA 0.329 signals sustainable underlying contact quality, though schedule fatigue (back-to-back) and a recent cold spell vs LHP (3.0 R/G L3) temper the upside; Lodolo's xFIP 5.08 (above p75=4.79, weak) over ~5.4 IP is a significant run-prevention liability, with ERA 4.07 sitting 1.00 below xFIP indicating ERA deflation that may worsen. CIN projects at approximately 3.2-3.4 runs: Rodriguez's xFIP 3.41 (near p25=3.36, strong) over ~5.8 IP, improving trend, and low BB% 3.1% suppress run expectation materially; CIN's lineup vs LHP shows wOBA 0.294/xwOBA 0.289 with K% 31.0% (well above median 20.9%) and a cold contact label, though their L3 vs LHP averages 3.7 R/G against very strong pitching (avg xFIP 2.96). Combined estimate ~7.4-7.8 runs against a posted total of 9.5 suggests the under, with sharp money annotations also pointing toward the over on totals and away on runline providing a cross-check. ARI ML is a marginal edge given Lodolo's ERA/xFIP divergence not fully reflected in near-coin-flip pricing.

ARI projects to approximately 3.6–3.9 runs against Lodolo (xFIP 5.08, p75+ weak, ERA 4.07 deflated likely to worsen, reverse split vs LHB, ~5.4 IP) plus a rested CIN bullpen (avg xFIP 4.50, near league average). ARI offense is cold (2.4 R/G last 5, wOBA 0.254 vs xwOBA 0.307 suggesting some unlucky contact, but back-to-back fatigue and recent LHP struggles L3: 3.0 R/G). CIN projects to approximately 2.8–3.1 runs against Rodriguez (xFIP 3.41, p25 strong, ERA aligned, ~5.8 IP) plus ARI's bullpen (avg xFIP 4.37, near league average). Combined estimate ~6.5–7.0 runs vs posted 9.5; dominant market signal is heavy sharp money on ARI ML and ARI runline.

Strider shows concerning consistency with a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts despite solid peripherals (3.77 xFIP), while McLean is trending upward with back-to-back quality starts after a rough outing. The Braves' offense has been inconsistent against RHP (4.3 R/G average but just 1 R in their last game), while the Mets have cooled significantly in their last 3 games (2.3 R/G vs 4.6 prior). This matchup projects to be a low-scoring affair with modest run production from both sides.

ATL projects to score approximately 4.3-4.5 runs facing McLean (xFIP 5.10, p75-weak, ~5.3 IP) and a NYM bullpen with key arms depleted (Williams, Weaver, Raley, Minter all pitched yesterday, avg xFIP 4.16 for available arms vs league 4.37). NYM projects to score approximately 3.0-3.3 runs facing Strider (xFIP 3.77, p25-strong range, ERA 5.40 inflated above xFIP by +1.63, ~4.9 IP) backed by an elite ATL bullpen (avg xFIP 3.30 vs league 4.37). Combined estimate ~7.4-7.8 runs vs posted line of 8.5, suggesting slight under lean, though weather (+0.4 runs, 94F, wind L-to-R) closes the gap. Sharp money is heavily on ATL ML (-99pp money vs bets), ATL runline (-53pp), and the over (-25pp), with the ML line moving from -115 to -105 toward NYM despite the sharp-money flow favoring ATL.

ATL projects ~4.1 runs against McLean (xFIP 5.10, p75-weak, ~5.3 IP) and a depleted NYM bullpen (xFIP 4.16, four key arms unavailable). NYM projects ~3.0 runs against Strider (xFIP 3.77, strong, ~4.9 IP) and an elite ATL bullpen (xFIP 3.30). Combined estimate ~7.1 runs vs posted total of 8.5. The dominant market signal is sharp money moving heavily toward ATL (+16pp money>bets) while the line drifted from ATL -115 to +105 — the book is fading public ATL action, but the baseball independently supports ATL given the stark pitching asymmetry.

Ryan Weathers shows regression risk after a dominant start followed by two poor outings, while Trey Yesavage has a better xFIP (3.28 vs 3.66) despite similar recent results. The Yankees offense averages 3.9 R/G vs RHP recently but faces a pitcher in decline, while the Blue Jays struggle significantly vs LHP (wOBA .307) and have scored just 4.2 R/G overall.

NYY projects to score approximately 4.2-4.5 runs: their vs-RHP lineup shows wOBA 0.386 vs xwOBA 0.369 (modest luck component), recent L10 avg 3.9 R/G against avg opp xFIP 3.41 (quality-adjusted, suppressed), facing Yesavage whose xFIP 3.28 (p25, elite tier) diverges massively from his 6.21 ERA (+2.93 gap, luck-driven — ERA inflated, likely to improve), with K% 26.3% (well above p50 20.9%), HardHit% 38.1% (below league median 39.5%), projected ~6.0 IP, backed by a TOR bullpen at 3.99 xFIP (near league RA/9 4.37 benchmark, slightly better). TOR projects to score approximately 3.6-3.9 runs: vs-LHP lineup shows wOBA 0.307/xwOBA 0.294 (modest luck component, contact momentum HOT but wOBA-xwOBA gap is small), L7 avg 4.7 R/G vs avg opp xFIP 3.44 (quality-adjusted), facing Weathers whose xFIP 3.66 (p25 tier, strong) diverges from 4.57 ERA (+0.91, inflated), K% 20.0% (near median), HardHit% 41.1% (slightly above median — small discount to xFIP warranted), projected ~5.9 IP, backed by NYY bullpen at 3.87 xFIP (better than league RA/9 4.37). Combined estimate ~8.0-8.4 runs vs posted total 7.5. Sharp money is on TOR ML (+41pp money over bets) with the line moving from -110/-110 to -105/-113 toward TOR.

NYY projected runs: ~4.1–4.3 (recent 5-game avg 5.4, but wOBA 0.379 vs xwOBA 0.319 is a -0.060 luck gap flagging regression; facing Yesavage whose xFIP 3.28 sits at p25-strong despite ERA 6.21, 26.3 K%, 38.1 HardHit% below league median; ~6.0 IP projected, then TOR bullpen xFIP 3.99 slightly above league 4.37 avg, so minimal penalty). TOR projected runs: ~3.8–4.0 (recent 5-game avg 4.2, wOBA 0.259 vs xwOBA 0.304 is a +0.045 sustainable gap; Weathers' xFIP 3.66 is solid p25-adjacent despite ERA 4.57, K% 20.0%, 41.1 HardHit% marginally above median; ~5.9 IP projected, then NYY bullpen xFIP 3.87 below league 4.37 avg, above-average relief). Combined estimate ~7.9–8.3 vs posted total 7.5; park factor 1.01 neutral, wind +0.3 runs out to CF pushes toward 8.1–8.6. Sharp money composite favors TOR ML and NYY runline (large-dollar money). The dominant baseball finding is Yesavage's xFIP/ERA divergence (+2.93 gap, largest in the game) which the market appears to be discounting NYY's run expectation against — but the line has actually moved toward TOR (-110 to -113), suggesting sharp money has already factored this in, with large bets on TOR.

Roki Sasaki's elite peripherals (2.21 xFIP, 31.4 K%) face a White Sox offense that has been inconsistent against quality RHP, while Anthony Kay is showing clear regression after a disastrous last outing (13.50 ERA). The Dodgers' recent struggles against LHP are concerning, but Sasaki's dominance should suppress Chicago's run production.

LAD projects for approximately 5.2-5.8 runs: their last-5 avg of 8.4 is materially inflated by luck (wOBA 0.260 vs xwOBA 0.274 vs LHP, and L3 vs LHP avg just 1.7 R/G vs starters with avg xFIP 3.39 — notably poor recent LHP production), but Kay's xFIP of 4.79 (p75, weak) over ~5.2 IP and a fully rested CWS bullpen with avg xFIP 4.52 (near league RA/9 4.37) keep a moderate run floor. CWS projects for approximately 1.8-2.4 runs: Sasaki's 30-day xFIP of 2.21 (well below p25=3.36, elite) over ~6.1 IP is the dominant suppression factor, CWS wOBA 0.330 vs xwOBA 0.293 signals luck-driven contact due to regress, and LAD's bullpen is significantly taxed with three arms limited and two unavailable. The combined estimate of roughly 7.0-8.2 runs sits below the posted 8.5 total. Sharp money is notably present on the LAD runline (money 95% vs bets 31%, +64pp gap) and on the under (money 99% vs bets 42%, +57pp gap).

Sasaki projects ~2.5 expected runs allowed over 6.1 IP (xFIP 2.21, elite p25 tier) against a CWS offense whose wOBA 0.435 vs xwOBA 0.369 signals a -0.066 luck gap due to regress; CWS run estimate ~3.0-3.5. LAD projects ~5.5-6.0 runs against Kay (xFIP 4.79, p75 weak, declining trend, short 5.2 IP projected) with a rested 12-arm CWS bullpen (avg xFIP 4.52) covering the back end, though LAD's lineup vs LHP shows wOBA 0.245 vs xwOBA 0.291 with a +0.046 favorable gap and recent L3 vs LHP at only 1.7 R/G against elite competition (avg xFIP 3.39). Combined estimate ~8.5-9.0 runs vs posted 8.5 total. Sharp money is split — large-dollar action favors CWS ML and the over, with the line moving from -140 to -170 on LAD (ticket volume driven), suggesting some professional resistance to the LAD favorite price.