Legend
Legend
MLB Bet Analyzer
Jun 6 · projections vs. lines
MLB Bet Analyzer
Jun 6 · projections vs. lines
Scout AI — Moneyline picks
Seattle Mariners
SEA @ DET · -135
1:10 PM EDT
Minnesota Twins
KC @ MIN · -140
2:10 PM EDT
St. Louis Cardinals
CIN @ STL · -128
2:15 PM EDT
Chicago Cubs
SF @ CHC · -140
2:20 PM EDT
Chicago White Sox
CWS @ PHI · +110
4:05 PM EDT
Arizona Diamondbacks
WSH @ ARI · -161
4:10 PM EDT
Houston Astros
ATH @ HOU · -115
4:10 PM EDT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PIT @ ATL · +105
4:10 PM EDT
Texas Rangers
CLE @ TEX · -110
7:35 PM EDT
Boston Red Sox
BOS @ NYY · +116
7:35 PM EDT
Milwaukee Brewers
MIL @ COL · -245
9:10 PM EDT
New York Mets
NYM @ SD · -125
10:10 PM EDT
P&L settles as games go final
Cafecito — Runline picks
SEA -1.5
SEA @ DET · +125
1:10 PM EDT
STL -1.5
CIN @ STL · +159
2:15 PM EDT
SF +1.5
SF @ CHC · -176
2:20 PM EDT
WSH +1.5
WSH @ ARI · -156
4:10 PM EDT
PIT -1.5
PIT @ ATL · +160
4:10 PM EDT
CLE +1.5
CLE @ TEX · +158
7:35 PM EDT
NYY +1.5
BOS @ NYY · +156
7:35 PM EDT
MIL -1.5
MIL @ COL · -146
9:10 PM EDT
NYM -1.5
NYM @ SD · +136
10:10 PM EDT
P&L settles as games go final
Bryce Miller is in excellent form with a 2.38 xFIP and elite strikeout rate (31.5% K%), while Keider Montero shows significant regression risk with a 4.62 xFIP, poor strikeout rate (13.2% K%), and elevated hard-hit rate (38.5%). Seattle's offense has been more consistent and productive (5.5 runs/game avg) compared to Detroit's volatility (4.4 runs/game avg), and both teams have similar offensive profiles vs RHP, but Miller's dominance should suppress Detroit's scoring.
SEA projects ~2.8 runs: Miller's elite xFIP of 2.38 (well below p25=3.27) over ~5.0 IP severely limits DET, whose offense averages 3.9 R/G vs RHP over last 10 games with luck-driven wOBA 0.372 vs xwOBA 0.349; SEA's superior bullpen (xFIP 3.50 vs league RA/9 4.19) covers the remaining ~4 IP. DET projects ~2.4 runs: Montero's xFIP 4.62 (near p75=4.67, weak) over ~5.3 IP against a SEA offense that averages 4.7 R/G vs RHP last 10 but with luck-driven wOBA 0.361 vs xwOBA 0.339 and back-to-back fatigue suppressing output; DET's bullpen is weaker (xFIP 4.29 vs league 4.19). Combined ~5.2 runs vs a market-implied total (unavailable but estimated around 7.5-8.0 given the pitching profiles). The dominant signal is Miller's massive ERA/xFIP divergence: ERA 1.12 is 1.26 below his already-elite xFIP 2.38, meaning ERA is deflated and may worsen, but the xFIP itself remains at a historically strong level the market may not have fully repriced given the win-loss record of 1-2.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | ARIELIT | 5 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/19 | CWSHIGH | 6 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/14 | HOULOW | 5 | 3.38 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | CWSELIT | 6 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/26 | LAAPOOR | 6 | 6.35 | L |
| 5/19 | CLEHIGH | 5 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/14 | NYMAVG | 5 | 7.71 | L |
| 5/8 | KCHIGH | 6 | 1.50 | L |
| vs RHP L10 | BLW4.57 | 4.7 R/G | 0.411 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | BLW4.64 | 5.5 R/G | 0.437 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | BLW4.37 | 3.9 R/G | 0.399 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | BLW4.43 | 4.4 R/G | 0.407 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | PeraltaRHPAVG | 1 | 0.397 |
| 6/2 | BrazobánRHPPOOR | 8 | 0.444 |
| 6/1 | WarrenRHPQAL | 3 | 0.357 |
| 5/31 | KellyRHPBLW | 3 | 0.432 |
| 5/30 | NelsonRHPPOOR | 5 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | MartinezRHPBLW | 7 | 0.437 |
| 6/2 | MatzLHPPOOR | 8 | 0.486 |
| 6/1 | JaxRHPACE | 10 | 0.602 |
| 5/31 | BurkeRHPQAL | 1 | 0.330 |
| 5/30 | KayLHPAVG | 1 | -- |
Joe Ryan is pitching at an elite level (2.77 xFIP, 31.2 K%, 4.2 BB%) while Luinder Avila shows significant control issues (17.9 BB%, 4.14 xFIP) and inconsistency. The Twins offense has been more productive (4.2 runs/game vs KC's 3.2) and both lineups have similar offensive metrics against RHP, but Ryan's dominance should suppress KC's run production while Avila's struggles should allow MIN to score.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | CINHIGH | 5 | 1.80 | W |
| 4/4 | MILHIGH | 3 | 15.00 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | CWSHIGH | 6 | 6.00 | W |
| 5/26 | CWSHIGH | 8 | 2.35 | W |
| 5/20 | HOUPOOR | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/15 | MILHIGH | 6 | 1.50 | L |
| 5/9 | CLEAVG | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.48 | 4.0 R/G | 0.411 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.69 | 3.9 R/G | 0.419 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.54 | 4.7 R/G | 0.357 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.63 | 4.2 R/G | 0.350 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | BurnsRHPACE | 5 | 0.454 |
| 6/2 | AbbottLHPPOOR | 3 | 0.405 |
| 6/1 | RichardsonRHP-- | 9 | 0.533 |
| 5/31 | LeiterRHPQAL | 3 | 0.519 |
| 5/30 | RockerRHPAVG | 6 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | FeddeRHPPOOR | 0 | 0.302 |
| 6/2 | MartinRHPACE | 6 | 0.394 |
| 6/1 | SandlinRHPBLW | 9 | 0.475 |
| 5/31 | AshcraftRHPACE | 3 | 0.264 |
| 5/30 | KellerRHPAVG | 9 | -- |
Liberatore presents a significant pitching advantage with an elite 2.46 xFIP and 33% K-rate versus Lodolo's concerning 5.24 xFIP and elevated 10% BB-rate. The Cardinals' offense also has a substantial edge against left-handed pitching (0.303 xwOBA vs CIN's 0.238), while Cincinnati's lineup has struggled significantly in this split. This matchup heavily favors St. Louis.
STL is estimated at ~4.1 runs (Lodolo xFIP 5.24, well above p75 threshold of 4.67 — genuinely weak, ~5.4 IP projected, declining trend; CIN bullpen avg xFIP 4.93 above league RA/9 4.19 for remaining ~3.6 IP; STL vs LHP last 8 games avg 4.0 R/G, xwOBA 0.384 vs mixed quality; +0.6 weather bump split evenly). CIN is estimated at ~2.8 runs (Liberatore xFIP 2.46, elite p25 tier, ERA 6.73 inflated +4.27 above xFIP — clear luck-driven ERA, strong K% 33.0%; CIN offense COLD, wOBA 0.197/xwOBA 0.192 vs LHP last 15d, last 5 avg 3.2 R/G, K% 29.3 vs LHP well above league median; STL bullpen xFIP 3.68 below league RA/9 4.19; schedule fatigue both sides cancels; park factor 0.98 near neutral). Combined estimate ~6.9 runs. The dominant signal is the Liberatore ERA/xFIP divergence (+4.27 gap) which the market may not have fully repriced given his 1-2 record and 6.73 ERA headline.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | ATLHIGH | 7 | 4.05 | W |
| 5/25 | NYMAVG | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/18 | PHIHIGH | 6 | 4.76 | L |
| 5/13 | WSHHIGH | 4 | 11.25 | L |
| 5/8 | HOUAVG | 5 | 6.75 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/25 | MILAVG | 5 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/19 | PITHIGH | 5 | 7.71 | W |
| 5/14 | ATHAVG | 5 | 7.20 | L |
| 5/8 | SDAVG | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/2 | LADHIGH | 6 | 3.18 | W |
| vs LHP L7 | QAL3.55 | 5.6 R/G | 0.457 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.71 | 3.6 R/G | 0.428 xwOBA |
| vs LHP L8 | AVG4.15 | 4.0 R/G | 0.384 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.46 | 3.2 R/G | 0.404 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | KolekRHPQAL | 2 | 0.396 |
| 6/2 | CameronLHPACE | 4 | 0.364 |
| 6/1 | AvilaRHPAVG | 2 | 0.453 |
| 5/31 | StriderRHPQAL | 6 | 0.451 |
| 5/30 | PérezLHPACE | 2 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | GoreLHPBLW | 5 | 0.378 |
| 6/2 | EovaldiRHPQAL | 4 | 0.418 |
| 6/1 | deGromRHPACE | 1 | 0.377 |
| 5/31 | WicksLHPACE | 5 | 0.351 |
| 5/30 | BrownRHPACE | 1 | -- |
Ben Brown is pitching significantly better than Landen Roupp, with a superior xFIP (2.76 vs 3.32), better command (7.8% BB vs 9.8%), and a recent dominant stretch (1 ER in last start). Roupp shows concerning regression after allowing 8 ER in his most recent outing. The Giants' offense is slightly better against RHP but faces a hot pitcher, while the Cubs' offense is due for positive regression after scoring only 4.1 runs per game recently.
SF expected runs ~3.2: HOT momentum label (5-game avg 7.4) is heavily luck-driven (wOBA 0.386 vs xwOBA 0.313, -0.073 gap), facing Ben Brown whose xFIP 2.76 sits at p25 (elite) with stable velo 96.8 mph and K% 29.9%; projected ~4.7 IP blunts his impact somewhat but CHC's bullpen (avg xFIP 3.54, below league RA/9 4.19, 6 rested arms) is excellent and covers the rest. CHC expected runs ~4.0: wOBA 0.349 vs xwOBA 0.346 (aligned, no luck inflation) facing Roupp whose xFIP 3.32 (p25-range, strong) is masked by a bloated ERA 6.60 (+3.28 above xFIP) driven by BABIP/strand-rate variance, a clear ERA/xFIP mispricing the market may not have fully repriced; Roupp's reverse split (vs R: 0.438 wOBA allowed) is notable but CHC lineup vs RHP posts xwOBA 0.346 cleanly. Combined estimate ~7.2 runs against a park factor of 0.95 and +0.3 wind adjustment nets to roughly 7.2, with the dominant signal being the SF offense luck regression and the CHC bullpen advantage.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | MILLOW | 4 | 18.00 | L |
| 5/25 | ARIHIGH | 5 | 3.60 | L |
| 5/19 | ARIAVG | 6 | 1.50 | L |
| 5/14 | LADLOW | 5 | 6.75 | L |
| 5/10 | PITAVG | 4 | 2.25 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/30 | STLLOW | 7 | 1.29 | W |
| 5/25 | PITAVG | 6 | 1.50 | L |
| 5/19 | MILAVG | 5 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/14 | ATLHIGH | 4 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/9 | TEXPOOR | 4 | 0.00 | W |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG4.08 | 5.6 R/G | 0.399 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG3.88 | 5.5 R/G | 0.390 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG3.97 | 4.4 R/G | 0.410 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.62 | 4.3 R/G | 0.399 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | CrowRHPPOOR | 12 | -- |
| 6/3 | GasserLHPPOOR | 1 | 0.356 |
| 6/2 | HarrisonLHPACE | 3 | 0.417 |
| 6/1 | DrohanLHPACE | 2 | 0.442 |
| 5/31 | GordonRHPAVG | 19 | 0.532 |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | GinnRHPACE | 7 | -- |
| 6/3 | SpringsLHPBLW | 4 | 0.410 |
| 6/2 | JumpLHPQAL | 1 | 0.289 |
| 5/31 | LiberatoreLHPACE | 1 | 0.429 |
| 5/30 | LeahyRHPBLW | 6 | -- |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | TORLOW | 7 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/25 | TBHIGH | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/19 | TBELIT | 5 | 3.38 | L |
| 5/13 | NYYHIGH | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/8 | ATHHIGH | 7 | 3.86 | L |
| L10 overall | QAL3.65 | 6.0 R/G | 0.422 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.70 | 3.6 R/G | 0.402 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG3.83 | 4.3 R/G | 0.410 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | BelloRHPQAL | 8 | -- |
| 6/3 | TolleLHPQAL | 1 | 0.362 |
| 6/2 | EarlyLHPQAL | 4 | 0.368 |
| 5/31 | MilesRHPQAL | 9 | 0.447 |
| 5/30 | YesavageRHPQAL | 6 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | SaleLHPACE | 7 | -- |
| 6/3 | HolmesRHPQAL | 3 | 0.476 |
| 6/2 | ElderRHPQAL | 3 | 0.299 |
| 5/31 | BradishRHPAVG | 5 | 0.376 |
| 5/30 | YoungRHPBLW | 5 | -- |
Sean Burke has been solid in his last three starts with a 4.55 xFIP and strong recent form, while Andrew Painter is showing regression concerns after a poor last outing (4 ER in 3.3 IP) and elevated hard-hit rate (41.5%). The White Sox offense significantly outperforms the Phillies (5.8 vs 3.0 runs/game, 0.347 vs 0.280 wOBA vs RHP), creating a favorable matchup for Chicago.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | DETPOOR | 5 | 1.69 | W |
| 5/26 | MINAVG | 7 | 2.57 | L |
| 5/20 | SEAAVG | 5 | 3.86 | L |
| 5/15 | CHCAVG | 4 | 8.31 | L |
| 5/8 | SEAAVG | 4 | 12.46 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | LADELIT | 3 | 10.80 | L |
| 5/24 | CLEAVG | 6 | 2.84 | L |
| 5/18 | CINAVG | 6 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/13 | BOSAVG | 5 | 1.80 | L |
| 5/7 | ATHAVG | 4 | 19.64 | L |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG3.89 | 4.8 R/G | 0.412 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.18 | 5.8 R/G | 0.413 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG4.07 | 3.0 R/G | 0.427 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.14 | 3.0 R/G | 0.428 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | BradleyRHPQAL | 8 | 0.537 |
| 6/2 | PrielippLHPAVG | 4 | 0.406 |
| 6/1 | RyanRHPACE | 6 | 0.472 |
| 5/31 | MonteroRHPBLW | 2 | 0.305 |
| 5/30 | ValdezLHPPOOR | 7 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | GiolitoRHPPOOR | 6 | -- |
| 6/3 | BuehlerRHPQAL | 3 | 0.474 |
| 6/2 | VásquezRHPBLW | 3 | 0.424 |
| 5/31 | YamamotoRHPACE | 1 | 0.430 |
| 5/30 | SasakiRHPQAL | 4 | -- |
Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching significantly better than Zack Littell with a superior xFIP (3.83 vs 4.87), lower hard-hit rate (29.2% vs 40.5%), and recent dominant form. The Nationals' offense struggles against LHP (wOBA .251) while the Diamondbacks' lineup excels against RHP (wOBA .339), creating a favorable matchup for Arizona at home.
WSH expected runs: ~3.2-3.5 (recent 5-game avg 4.0 runs, but facing E-Rod whose xFIP 3.85 sits at p50/average tier over 6.2 projected IP, WSH lineup vs LHP wOBA 0.232/xwOBA 0.283 shows sustainable but modest contact, schedule fatigue day-after-night, ARI bullpen xFIP 3.81 below league RA/9 4.19 for remaining ~2.8 IP). ARI expected runs: ~2.8-3.1 (recent 5-game avg 2.6 runs, COLD momentum, facing Littell whose xFIP 4.87 is at p75/weak tier over ~5.1 IP but ERA 2.25 is 2.62 runs below xFIP signaling regression risk, ARI vs RHP wOBA 0.326/xwOBA 0.328 shows genuine but cold contact, WSH bullpen xFIP 4.29 slightly above league RA/9 for remaining ~3.9 IP, schedule fatigue). Combined estimate ~6.0-6.6 runs. Market line unknown. The dominant signal is E-Rod's xFIP/ERA divergence (-2.43 gap) and Littell's even larger ERA/xFIP divergence (-2.62 gap) — both starters are significantly outperforming their xFIP, meaning the market may be pricing their recent ERAs more than their true run-prevention skill.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | SDPOOR | 6 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/20 | NYMELIT | 5 | 3.60 | W |
| 5/15 | BALAVG | 5 | 0.00 | W |
| 4/28 | NYMPOOR | 4 | 9.82 | L |
| 4/22 | ATLELIT | 6 | 9.00 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | LADELIT | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/26 | SFAVG | 6 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/21 | COLAVG | 7 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/16 | COLAVG | 5 | 5.06 | L |
| 5/10 | NYMAVG | 8 | 1.08 | W |
| vs LHP L7 | BLW4.64 | 4.1 R/G | 0.402 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.17 | 4.5 R/G | 0.407 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.50 | 3.6 R/G | 0.384 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.53 | 4.3 R/G | 0.366 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | MeyerRHPQAL | 1 | 0.302 |
| 6/2 | BacharRHPAVG | 3 | 0.356 |
| 6/1 | AlcantaraRHPQAL | 3 | 0.412 |
| 5/31 | CanningRHPAVG | 4 | 0.395 |
| 5/30 | KingRHPQAL | 9 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | OhtaniRHPQAL | 0 | 0.285 |
| 6/2 | LauerLHPPOOR | 5 | 0.421 |
| 6/1 | SheehanRHPQAL | 4 | 0.332 |
| 5/31 | MillerRHPACE | 2 | 0.313 |
| 5/30 | WooRHPACE | 1 | -- |
Houston's offense has been significantly more productive (5.5 runs/game vs ATH's 3.3) and maintains a slight edge in wOBA against RHP. Tatsuya Imai shows solid recent form with a 4.66 xFIP and has allowed just 2 ER over his last 12 innings, while Kade Morris lacks recent data making him a wild card. The Astros' offensive consistency and Imai's current groove give Houston a clear advantage in this matchup.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | MILAVG | 6 | 3.00 | L |
| 5/25 | TEXAVG | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/18 | MINAVG | 5 | 5.79 | L |
| 5/13 | SEALOW | 4 | 13.50 | L |
| 4/11 | SEAPOOR | 0 | 81.00 | L |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG4.20 | 3.0 R/G | 0.398 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.11 | 3.8 R/G | 0.409 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.48 | 5.6 R/G | 0.397 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.48 | 5.6 R/G | 0.397 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | ImanagaLHPPOOR | 6 | -- |
| 6/3 | ReaRHPPOOR | 5 | 0.499 |
| 6/2 | TaillonRHPBLW | 2 | 0.406 |
| 5/31 | WarrenRHPBLW | 8 | 0.508 |
| 5/30 | WeathersLHPQAL | 6 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | JonesRHPACE | 1 | -- |
| 6/3 | SkenesRHPACE | 11 | 0.420 |
| 6/2 | ChandlerRHPBLW | 6 | 0.355 |
| 5/31 | MisiorowskiRHPACE | 0 | 0.353 |
| 5/30 | SproatRHPAVG | 9 | -- |
Ashcraft is in elite form with a 2.58 xFIP and dominant recent starts, while Strider shows regression signals with a 3.15 xFIP, elevated walk rate (10.3%), and three consecutive outings allowing 3+ runs. The Pirates' offense (0.373 wOBA vs RHP) significantly outpaces Atlanta's (0.330 wOBA), creating a favorable matchup for Pittsburgh.
PIT estimated ~4.2 runs (HOT offense at 8.6 avg last 5, but luck-adjusted xwOBA 0.344 vs Strider's elite xFIP 3.15 over ~5.2 IP, schedule fatigue, and wOBA 0.025 above xwOBA signals regression); ATL estimated ~2.8 runs (cold contact momentum, xwOBA 0.317 vs Ashcraft's exceptional xFIP 2.58 — p25 elite tier — over ~6.4 IP, depleted bullpen with López/Fuentes/Dodd unavailable/limited, only 5 rested arms). Combined estimate ~7.0 runs. No ML prices are shown, so market implied probability is unavailable; cap confidence at medium for all picks. The dominant signal is Ashcraft's xFIP 2.58 (well inside p25=3.27 elite threshold) with a confirming improving trend (3.12→2.58), K% 30.1 vs league median 21.0%, BB% 1.9% vs league median 8.1%, and ERA/xFIP alignment — while Strider's ERA 4.97 is inflated +1.82 above his xFIP 3.15, a genuine mispricing candidate if the market is anchored on Strider's ERA. The ATL bullpen is materially depleted post-yesterday.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | MINAVG | 6 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/26 | CHCPOOR | 6 | 1.42 | W |
| 5/21 | STLLOW | 7 | 1.29 | W |
| 5/15 | PHIAVG | 7 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/10 | SFPOOR | 7 | 1.29 | W |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | CINHIGH | 5 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/26 | BOSPOOR | 5 | 5.40 | W |
| 5/21 | MIAHIGH | 6 | 4.26 | W |
| 5/15 | BOSPOOR | 5 | 1.69 | W |
| 5/10 | LADAVG | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG4.00 | 6.1 R/G | 0.479 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.14 | 6.9 R/G | 0.489 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG3.99 | 4.8 R/G | 0.387 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG3.99 | 4.8 R/G | 0.426 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | TengRHPBLW | 5 | -- |
| 6/3 | ArrighettiRHPPOOR | 9 | 0.536 |
| 6/2 | BurrowsRHPPOOR | 10 | 0.519 |
| 5/31 | MatthewsRHPQAL | 9 | 0.464 |
| 5/30 | OberRHPBLW | 10 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | FluhartyLHPACE | 2 | -- |
| 6/3 | CorbinLHPBLW | 7 | 0.419 |
| 6/2 | GausmanRHPQAL | 4 | 0.306 |
| 5/31 | LodoloLHPPOOR | 4 | 0.485 |
| 5/30 | SingerRHPBLW | 5 | -- |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | LAAAVG | 5 | 1.80 | W |
| 5/25 | BALLOW | 5 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/18 | BALLOW | 5 | 7.20 | W |
| 5/12 | TORAVG | 5 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/6 | TORAVG | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| L10 overall | AVG4.07 | 3.7 R/G | 0.400 xwOBA |
| vs LHP L8 | QAL3.68 | 4.0 R/G | 0.415 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.78 | 4.1 R/G | 0.443 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | MeltonRHPBLW | 2 | 0.344 |
| 6/2 | FlahertyRHPACE | 0 | 0.374 |
| 6/1 | MaddenRHPACE | 9 | 0.484 |
| 5/31 | KochanowiczRHPPOOR | 5 | 0.403 |
| 5/30 | DetmersLHPACE | 3 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | AlvarezLHPACE | 4 | 0.512 |
| 6/2 | LoveladyLHPPOOR | 7 | 0.520 |
| 6/1 | CavalliRHPQAL | 7 | 0.505 |
| 5/31 | McLeanRHPBLW | 1 | 0.352 |
| 5/30 | ScottRHPQAL | 1 | -- |
Texas Rangers present a compelling home favorite with superior offensive metrics (0.325 xwOBA vs RHP) against a struggling Cleveland lineup (0.251 xwOBA vs RHP). Jack Leiter shows recent dominance with a shutout in his last start and superior strikeout rate (27.8% K%), while Tanner Bibee displays concerning volatility with a 7 ER outing just 6 days ago despite solid xFIP metrics.
CLE is estimated at ~3.3 runs: their last-5 avg of 4.0 is tempered by a luck-driven wOBA/xwOBA gap (-0.024, wOBA 0.273 vs xwOBA 0.249), back-to-back fatigue, and Leiter's xFIP of 3.75 (above p25 strong, near p50 avg) over ~5.6 IP, with TEX's bullpen (avg xFIP 4.21, league-average) covering the remainder. TEX is estimated at ~4.3 runs: last-5 avg of 5.0 with minimal luck distortion (wOBA 0.331 vs xwOBA 0.326, essentially aligned), facing Bibee whose 30-day xFIP of 3.92 (near p50 avg) masks an inflated ERA of 5.82 (+1.90 divergence) — but ERA/xFIP divergence and improving xFIP trend argue against treating him as a run-suppression risk, and CLE's bullpen (avg xFIP 2.81, well below league RA/9 of 4.19) is elite and mostly rested. Combined estimate ~7.6 runs; no posted line or ML prices are available, capping confidence adjustments accordingly.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | BOSAVG | 6 | 4.50 | L |
| 5/25 | WSHHIGH | 3 | 21.00 | L |
| 5/20 | DETPOOR | 8 | 1.12 | W |
| 5/15 | CINAVG | 7 | 4.05 | L |
| 5/9 | MINAVG | 6 | 1.50 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | KCPOOR | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/26 | HOUPOOR | 6 | 6.00 | W |
| 5/20 | COLLOW | 5 | 7.20 | W |
| 5/15 | HOULOW | 7 | 1.29 | L |
| 5/9 | CHCELIT | 5 | 0.00 | W |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG4.05 | 4.5 R/G | 0.367 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.18 | 3.5 R/G | 0.381 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | BLW4.33 | 4.8 R/G | 0.394 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | BLW4.33 | 4.8 R/G | 0.394 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | RodónLHPBLW | 1 | -- |
| 6/3 | ColeRHPAVG | 5 | 0.351 |
| 6/2 | SchlittlerRHPQAL | 9 | 0.361 |
| 5/31 | SuarezLHPACE | 4 | 0.425 |
| 5/30 | GrayRHPQAL | 1 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | PallanteRHPAVG | 3 | 0.397 |
| 6/2 | MayRHPQAL | 7 | 0.498 |
| 6/1 | McGreevyRHPBLW | 2 | 0.340 |
| 5/31 | WachaRHPAVG | 6 | 0.418 |
| 5/30 | LugoRHPBLW | 7 | -- |
Will Warren shows concerning regression signals with a 4.44 xFIP and elevated hard-hit rate (36.9%) despite recent run prevention, while Ranger Suarez has stabilized around a 2.60 xFIP with elite strikeout rates. The Yankees' potent offense vs LHP (0.397 wOBA) faces a superior pitcher, while Boston's weaker vs RHP profile (0.328 wOBA) meets a vulnerable starter showing signs of trouble.
BOS estimated runs: ~3.8-4.2 vs Will Warren (xFIP 4.44, p75-adjacent weak, declining trend 3.91->4.44, vs L wOBA allowed 0.378 creates platoon advantage for BOS LHBs, but BOS lineup vs RHP shows xwOBA 0.305 vs wOBA 0.323 — slight luck component — with ~5.3 IP projected then NYY bullpen xFIP 4.19/league avg with setup Fernando Cruz unavailable and Bednar/Headrick limited). NYY estimated runs: ~4.8-5.4 vs Ranger Suarez (xFIP 2.60, p25 elite, but ERA 6.29 is +3.69 above xFIP — massive divergence flagging ERA as near-noise driven by BABIP/HR variance; K% 32.3 is elite; HardHit% 32.4 is well below 39.1 league median confirming contact suppression; improving trend 3.15->2.60; however NYY vs LHP logs avg 8.0 R/G but wOBA 0.389 vs xwOBA 0.346, a -0.043 luck-driven gap flagged for regression, and contact momentum COLD; NYY bullpen 5 rested arms at xFIP 4.19, BOS bullpen 9 rested arms at elite xFIP 3.10). Combined estimate ~8.5-9.5 runs. Key market mispricing candidates: Suarez's 6.29 ERA masking an elite 2.60 xFIP (p25) with 32.3 K% and 32.4 HardHit%, combined with NYY's luck-inflated vs-LHP wOBA due to regress, and BOS's elite bullpen (xFIP 3.10) vs NYY's depleted pen (Cruz unavailable, Bednar/Headrick limited) — the market may be overweighting Suarez's ERA and underweighting the bullpen asymmetry favoring BOS.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | CLELOW | 5 | 7.20 | W |
| 5/26 | ATLAVG | 5 | 9.00 | L |
| 5/19 | KCLOW | 4 | 2.08 | W |
| 5/14 | PHIAVG | 5 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/3 | HOUAVG | 4 | 0.00 | L |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | ATHLOW | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/25 | KCLOW | 6 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/19 | TORAVG | 5 | 5.40 | W |
| 5/12 | BALAVG | 6 | 3.18 | W |
| 5/6 | TEXPOOR | 4 | 13.50 | L |
| vs RHP L10 | BLW4.22 | 5.0 R/G | 0.401 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.04 | 5.4 R/G | 0.403 xwOBA |
| vs LHP L8 | BLW4.61 | 8.0 R/G | 0.415 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.08 | 6.3 R/G | 0.396 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | RogersLHPPOOR | 2 | -- |
| 6/3 | BassittRHPBLW | 8 | 0.431 |
| 6/2 | BazRHPBLW | 2 | 0.306 |
| 5/31 | BibeeRHPAVG | 9 | 0.510 |
| 5/30 | MessickLHPACE | 9 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | CecconiRHPAVG | 2 | -- |
| 6/3 | WilliamsRHPACE | 4 | 0.464 |
| 6/2 | CantilloLHPPOOR | 4 | 0.380 |
| 5/31 | LopezLHPPOOR | 13 | 0.367 |
| 5/30 | GinnRHPQAL | 4 | -- |
Misiorowski is in elite form with a 1.67 xFIP and dominant strikeout rate (41.9 K%), posting three consecutive quality starts with minimal earned runs. Gordon shows concerning regression signals with a 4.44 xFIP, elevated hard-hit rate (50%), and a recent implosion (4 ER in 3 IP on 5/31), while facing a Brewers offense that has shown flashes of power despite inconsistent run production.
MIL expected runs: ~3.2 (Misiorowski's elite 30-day xFIP of 1.67 is a small-sample outlier but still projects as a top-5% starter; projected 6.5 IP controls ~72% of game; COL bullpen xFIP 4.86 is materially below league RA/9 4.19 for remaining ~2 IP; COL offense wOBA 0.353/xwOBA 0.344 is genuine contact quality but Misiorowski's HardHit% 34.7 is below league median 39.1 and K% 41.9 is elite; Coors factor 1.15 applied). MIL expected runs: ~5.8 (Gordon's xFIP 4.44 at league p50, ERA 5.62 inflated by +1.18 but declining xFIP trend 3.68→4.44 is a warning; projected only 4.1 IP controls ~46% of game; MIL offense averaged 7.0 runs last 5 games, xwOBA 0.310 vs wOBA 0.303 shows no luck inflation; COL xFIP 4.86 bullpen carries remaining ~4.9 IP; Coors 1.15 applied). Combined estimate ~9.0 runs; no market line shown, cap ML confidence at medium. The dominant signal is the extreme mismatch between starters — Misiorowski suppresses COL while Gordon projects for only 4.1 IP handing a 4.86 xFIP bullpen to MIL's HOT offense.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | HOUAVG | 7 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/25 | STLLOW | 7 | 1.29 | W |
| 5/19 | CHCAVG | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/13 | SDLOW | 7 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/8 | NYYELIT | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | SFAVG | 3 | 12.00 | L |
| 5/25 | LADHIGH | 5 | 1.80 | L |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG3.92 | 5.1 R/G | 0.362 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG3.88 | 5.5 R/G | 0.382 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG4.12 | 4.9 R/G | 0.397 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | BLW4.48 | 5.4 R/G | 0.413 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | HouserRHPBLW | 9 | -- |
| 6/3 | WebbRHPAVG | 0 | 0.249 |
| 6/2 | McDonaldRHPQAL | 8 | 0.416 |
| 6/1 | RouppRHPQAL | 16 | 0.516 |
| 5/31 | ImaiRHPBLW | 2 | 0.334 |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | UreñaRHPAVG | 4 | 0.402 |
| 6/2 | RodriguezRHPPOOR | 8 | 0.432 |
| 6/1 | SorianoRHPBLW | 9 | 0.603 |
| 5/31 | RayLHPPOOR | 6 | 0.370 |
| 5/30 | HouserRHPBLW | 8 | -- |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | PHILOW | 5 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/24 | MILAVG | 7 | 1.29 | W |
| 5/18 | SDLOW | 7 | 1.29 | L |
| 5/13 | SFLOW | 6 | 7.11 | L |
| 5/5 | HOUAVG | 6 | 4.50 | W |
| vs RHP L10 | AVG3.84 | 6.5 R/G | 0.459 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.13 | 6.1 R/G | 0.402 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG4.08 | 5.9 R/G | 0.414 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | LorenzenRHPBLW | 11 | 0.548 |
| 6/2 | SuganoRHPPOOR | 2 | 0.408 |
| 6/1 | FreelandLHPBLW | 8 | 0.407 |
| 5/31 | McClanahanLHPQAL | 2 | 0.346 |
| 5/30 | RasmussenRHPQAL | 14 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | GallenRHPBLW | 7 | 0.467 |
| 6/2 | SorokaRHPQAL | 6 | 0.432 |
| 6/1 | RodriguezLHPAVG | 1 | 0.366 |
| 5/31 | PainterRHPPOOR | 9 | 0.516 |
| 5/30 | LuzardoLHPACE | 3 | -- |
McLean shows volatility with a recent dominant outing masking a 4.91 xFIP and elevated hard-hit rate, suggesting regression risk. Canning has been consistently solid with a 4.16 xFIP and three straight quality starts. The Mets' superior offensive metrics (0.309 wOBA vs RHP) face a Padres lineup that has been anemic (0.272 wOBA, 2.6 runs/game average), creating a clear talent mismatch.
NYM projects for approximately 4.8-5.2 runs: their last-5 average is 5.6 (HOT), xwOBA 0.342 vs xwOBA 0.308 wOBA indicates sustainable contact, but they face back-to-back fatigue and Canning's xFIP 4.16 (near p50 average) over a projected 4.3 IP; the SD bullpen is severely depleted (only 4 rested arms, avg xFIP 3.74, zero LHP rested vs 6 NYM LHB). SD projects for approximately 2.5-3.0 runs: their last-5 avg is 2.8 (cold), wOBA 0.269 vs xwOBA 0.280 shows genuine weakness (not luck), and they face McLean whose ERA 9.00 massively inflates over his xFIP 4.91 -- still a weak xFIP at p75-range but trending worse -- while the NYM bullpen is fully rested (11 arms, avg xFIP 4.07) including Williams and Weaver. The dominant signal is the SD bullpen depletion post yesterday's game (3 key arms unavailable/limited, zero LHP available) combined with McLean's ERA/xFIP divergence of +4.09 which may not be fully repriced given his 9.00 ERA headline.
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | MIAAVG | 5 | 1.80 | W |
| 5/25 | CINHIGH | 3 | 18.90 | L |
| 5/19 | WSHELIT | 6 | 9.53 | L |
| 5/14 | DETLOW | 7 | 3.86 | W |
| 5/9 | ARIAVG | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| Date | Opp | IP | ERA | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | WSHELIT | 5 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/25 | PHIAVG | 7 | 4.05 | L |
| 5/19 | LADHIGH | 5 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/14 | MILHIGH | 2 | 32.40 | L |
| 5/9 | STLAVG | 4 | 12.46 | L |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.64 | 3.3 R/G | 0.426 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | AVG3.98 | 4.5 R/G | 0.452 xwOBA |
| vs RHP L10 | QAL3.68 | 2.7 R/G | 0.382 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | QAL3.49 | 2.6 R/G | 0.384 xwOBA |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | KirbyRHPQAL | 7 | 0.366 |
| 6/2 | GilbertRHPQAL | 3 | 0.485 |
| 6/1 | HancockRHPAVG | 2 | 0.449 |
| 5/31 | KingLHPBLW | 10 | 0.568 |
| 5/30 | PhillipsRHPBLW | 6 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4 | WheelerRHPQAL | 4 | -- |
| 6/3 | SánchezLHPACE | 2 | 0.381 |
| 6/2 | NolaRHPQAL | 2 | 0.367 |
| 5/31 | LittellRHPPOOR | 2 | 0.366 |
| 5/30 | GriffinLHPQAL | 4 | -- |