Wrigley FieldTop 1st0-0 · 0 outs
San Francisco Giants+1.5 (-140)23-35·@11-22·L7: 3-4
+1400
Chicago Cubs-1.5 (+116)31-27·H17-10·L7: 1-6
-1650
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SF | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| CHC | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0 |
O/U0 / 11.0
F5 O/U6
Home win34%
R/GSF 5.5 / CHC 3.5
Weather79F / 12mph R→L
LineSF ML +135 ↑ +153
Robbie Ray is in a concerning downward trend with a 5.53 xFIP, elevated walk rate (16.9%), and hard contact issues (47.4%), though he showed improvement last time out. Edward Cabrera presents a more stable profile with a 4.52 xFIP and better command (10.7% BB%), though he's been inconsistent with innings pitched. The Cubs' offense is severely underperforming against LHP (0.166 wOBA) while the Giants' offense is solid against RHP (0.379 wOBA), creating a significant matchup advantage for San Francisco.
SFmedium
SF +1.5medium
Under 11medium
SF projects ~5.0-5.5 runs: their last-5 avg of 7.4 is heavily luck-inflated (wOBA 0.434 vs xwOBA 0.348, -0.086 gap flagged as luck-driven), but xwOBA 0.348 vs. Cabrera (xFIP 4.52, p75 borderline weak, ~3.9 IP projected) still supports above-average production, amplified by CHC's bullpen being only moderately strong (avg xFIP 3.54, above league RA/9 4.19 though favorable). CHC projects ~2.5-3.0 runs: their lineup vs LHP is COLD (wOBA 0.269, xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.1% vs league median 21.0%), actual results vs LHP starters show 1.8 R/G over last 6 games, and Robbie Ray (xFIP 5.53, p75+ weak, but massive ERA/xFIP gap inflated by BABIP), with SF's bullpen depleted (4 arms limited yesterday, avg xFIP 4.66 for available arms above league 4.19). Combined estimate ~7.5-8.5 runs vs the posted line of 11.0, suggesting significant under value. Market anchor for CHC -1.5 cover prob is 46.8%; SF's run edge (~2-2.5 runs) pushes P(CHC wins by 2+) down given CHC's severe LHP struggles and fatigue.
SFmedium
SF +1.5medium
Under 11high
Under 6high
79°F · wind 12 mph R→L+0.1 R
data unavailable
SF projects for approximately 4.2-4.8 runs: their last-5 avg of 7.4 is dramatically inflated by luck (wOBA 0.434 vs xwOBA 0.348, a -0.086 gap labeled luck-driven), and their 10-game vs-RHP avg of 5.6 is partially quality-adjusted against mixed opposition; facing Cabrera (xFIP 4.52, ~3.9 IP projected, ERA inflated vs xFIP suggesting improvement) then a strong CHC bullpen (avg xFIP 3.54 vs league 4.19), I estimate ~4.3 runs for SF. CHC projects for approximately 2.8-3.2 runs: their lineup vs LHP is genuinely cold (wOBA 0.269, xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.1 vs league 21.0 median), their 6-game vs-LHP avg of 1.8 R/G is not luck-suppressed but reflects real weakness, and while Robbie Ray's ERA/xFIP divergence (ERA 10.24, xFIP 5.53) means the ERA is noise, his xFIP 5.53 is well above the p75 weak threshold of 4.65 and his BB% of 16.9% is extremely elevated — he is genuinely bad, not unlucky; I estimate ~3.0 runs for CHC. Combined estimate ~7.3 runs vs the posted 11.0 total — a massive underplay — and sharp money has hammered the CHC side with line movement from -163 to -178 and 95% of money on home ML.
SFlow
SF +1.5medium
Under 11high
79°F · wind 12 mph R→L+0.1 R
data unavailable
SF projects ~3.8 runs: recent 5-game avg 7.4 is heavily luck-contaminated (wOBA 0.434 vs xwOBA 0.348, -0.086 gap labeled luck-driven, due to regress), plus schedule fatigue (back-to-back) against a Cabrera xFIP of 4.52 (near p50, average) over ~3.9 IP with a rested CHC bullpen at xFIP 3.54 (well below league 4.19 average). CHC projects ~2.7 runs: lineup vs LHP is genuinely weak (wOBA 0.269, xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.1 above league median, contact momentum COLD, avg 1.8 R/G vs LHP in last 6 games) facing Robbie Ray whose xFIP 5.53 (above p75, weak) over ~4.2 IP is alarming but offset by a depleted SF bullpen (5 rested at xFIP 4.66 with 4 arms limited). Combined estimate ~6.5 runs vs posted line of 11.0 -- a significant gap suggesting the under. Sharp money on home ML (-180), under (90% of money), and home runline all point professional action toward CHC and the under.
CHCmedium
SF +1.5medium
Under 11high
79°F · wind 12 mph R→L+0.1 R
data unavailable
~75 min pre-game
prompt v11SF projects ~4.0-4.5 runs: recent 5-game avg of 7.4 is heavily luck-inflated (wOBA 0.434 vs xwOBA 0.348, -0.086 gap), back-to-back schedule fatigue, and facing a CHC bullpen with avg xFIP 3.54 (well below league 4.19 RA/9) after Cabrera's short ~3.9 IP projection; sustainable estimate closer to 4.2 runs. CHC projects ~2.0-2.5 runs: historically brutal vs LHP (avg 1.8 R/G last 6 games vs LHP), wOBA 0.269 vs xwOBA 0.288 (actually slightly sustainable but cold), K% 22.1 above league median, day-game-after-night back-to-back fatigue, facing Ray whose xFIP 5.53 is weak (above p75=4.65) but whose ERA/xFIP gap (+4.71) suggests ERA is inflated noise while xFIP itself is still genuinely weak. Combined estimate ~6.3-6.7 runs vs posted total of 11.0 -- a massive under signal. Sharp money is heavily on CHC ML and RL, and the over (total) has sharp money too, creating a tension that warrants scrutiny.
CHClow
SF +1.5medium
Under 11high
79°F · wind 12 mph R→L+0.1 R
data unavailable
Robbie Ray(LHP)
93.2 mph5d rest
W-L 6-5ERA 4.55 / 5.18 RA9WHIP 1.45IP 57
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/31 | COL | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2.25 | W |
| 5/24 | CWS | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 9.00 | W |
| 5/18 | ARI | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 18.69 | L |
| 5/14 | LAD | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5.79 | L |
| 5/9 | PIT | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.50 | W |
xFIP 5.53K% 19.1%BB% 16.9%HH% 47.4%
BP5/10 restedxFIP 4.661 out4 ltd
Edward Cabrera(RHP)
95.8 mph16d rest
W-L 6-3ERA 4.50 / 5.44 RA9WHIP 1.48IP 48
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/20 | MIL | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3.00 | L |
| 5/15 | CWS | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5.79 | W |
| 5/9 | TEX | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9.00 | L |
| 5/4 | CIN | 6 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 4.50 | W |
| 4/29 | SD | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4.76 | W |
xFIP 4.52K% 17.9%BB% 10.7%HH% 37.5%Form ↑ declining
BP6/8 restedxFIP 3.541 out1 ltd
Confirmed
| vs RHP L10 | 4.09 | 5.6 R/G | 0.399 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.89 | 5.5 R/G | 0.392 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Schmitt0.300x0.227--
2Devers0.379x0.308--
3Arraez0.487x0.407--
4Adames0.449x0.303--
5Lee0.758x0.487--
6Eldridge0.523x0.499--
7Chapman0.329x0.285--
8Susac0.272x0.262--
9Gilbert0.408x0.352--
Lineup avg 0.434xwOBA avg 0.348
Confirmed
| vs LHP L6 | 3.42 | 1.8 R/G | 0.396 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.62 | 4.3 R/G | 0.401 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Hoerner0.313x0.303--
2Crow-Armstrong0.446x0.390--
3Bregman0.227x0.326--
4Suzuki0.222x0.345--
5Happ0.163x0.200--
6Kelly0.113x0.215--
7Busch0.262x0.251--
8Amaya0.417x0.389--
9Swanson0.259x0.169--
Lineup avg 0.269xwOBA avg 0.288
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | CrowRHP | 12 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0.404 |
| 6/3 | GasserLHP | 1 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0.356 |
| 6/2 | HarrisonLHP | 3 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 0.417 |
| 6/1 | DrohanLHP | 2 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 0.442 |
| 5/31 | GordonRHP | 19 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0.532 |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | GinnRHP | 7 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0.415 |
| 6/3 | SpringsLHP | 4 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0.410 |
| 6/2 | JumpLHP | 1 | 4 | -- | 6 | 3 | 0.289 |
| 5/31 | LiberatoreLHP | 1 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0.429 |
| 5/30 | LeahyRHP | 6 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -- |
Seattle Mariners-1.5 (+135)30-27·@14-14·L7: 5-2
Detroit Tigers+1.5 (-160)23-35·H14-14·L7: 1-6
O/U7.5
F5 O/U4
Home win37%
R/GSEA 4.6 / DET 3.9
Weather86F / 13mph out to CF+0.6R
LineSEA ML -130 ↑ -123
Bryan Woo is in excellent form with a 2.76 xFIP and elite 33.3% K-rate, coming off back-to-back quality starts. Framber Valdez shows significant regression risk with a bloated 5.49 xFIP, 48.9% HardHit%, and inconsistent recent outings. Seattle's offense averages 5.5 runs over last 10 games and has strong metrics vs LHP (0.381 wOBA), while Detroit's offense is struggling at 4.4 runs per game with modest metrics vs RHP.
SEAhigh
SEA -1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
SEA projects ~3.8 runs: their offense is averaging 4.0 R/G last 5 but wOBA (0.395) is well above xwOBA (0.324) vs LHP — luck-driven production due for regression — and their 8-game avg vs LHP starters is only 3.4 R/G; however, Framber Valdez is in poor form (xFIP 5.38, p75+ weak tier, declining trend, BB% 13.3%, HardHit% 45.2%, ERA 4.58 below xFIP suggesting further deterioration) over ~5.3 IP, with a below-average DET bullpen (xFIP 4.29 vs league 4.19) covering the rest. DET projects ~3.2 runs: their offense is hot (5.4 R/G last 5, wOBA 0.372 vs xwOBA 0.349 — modest luck component) but Bryan Woo is elite right now (xFIP 2.76, p25 strong tier, improving trend 3.17→2.76, HardHit% 34.6% below median, K% 33.3%) over ~5.6 IP, with a strong SEA bullpen (xFIP 3.50 vs league 4.19) covering the remaining ~3.4 IP. Weather adds ~0.6 runs to the total (wind out to CF at 13 mph, 86F). Combined estimate: ~7.0–7.2 runs vs posted total of 7.5; ML leans SEA on pitching dominance despite offensive regression risk.
SEAmedium
DET +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
Under 4medium
86°F · wind 13 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
SEA projected runs: ~3.6 (SEA offense avg 4.0 last 5 but wOBA 0.395 vs xwOBA 0.324 is luck-driven, regress expected; facing Valdez xFIP 5.38 p75+ weak for ~5.3 IP then DET bullpen xFIP 4.29 slightly above league RA/9 4.19; park near neutral 1.02, weather +0.6 split ~0.3 each). DET projected runs: ~3.0 (DET offense avg 5.4 last 5 but HOT floor check applies -- wOBA 0.372 vs xwOBA 0.349 slight luck component, facing Woo xFIP 2.76 elite p25 for ~5.6 IP then SEA bullpen xFIP 3.50 well below league RA/9; DET actual vs RHP avg 3.9 R/G). Combined estimate ~6.6 vs posted 7.5. Dominant signal: Woo's xFIP 2.76 is genuinely elite and suppresses DET's run expectation materially; Valdez xFIP 5.38 with ERA 4.58 deflated (may worsen) is the clearest starter-quality divergence in the matchup.
SEAmedium
SEA -1.5low
Under 7.5medium
86°F · wind 13 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
SEA projected runs: ~3.8-4.0 (cold offense avg 4.0/g last 5, wOBA 0.332 vs xwOBA 0.310 indicating mild luck; Valdez xFIP 5.38 p75+ weak, ERA 4.58 deflated likely to worsen, HardHit% 45.2% above 39.1% median, ~5.3 IP; DET bullpen xFIP 4.29 above league 4.19 avg, slightly weak; park 1.02, wind +0.6). DET projected runs: ~3.0-3.2 (hot offense avg 5.4/g last 5 but vs RHP last 10 only 3.9 avg; wOBA 0.375 vs xwOBA 0.371 nearly aligned, sustainable; Woo xFIP 2.76 p25 elite, ERA 2.03, trending improving, K% 33.3, HardHit% 34.6 below median, ~5.6 IP; SEA bullpen xFIP 3.50 well below league 4.19, strong; park/weather adds ~0.3 each). Combined estimate ~6.8-7.2 vs posted 7.5, running slightly under but not decisively. ML line opened SEA -130 and moved to -123, narrowing toward DET; sharp money annotations show professional action on SEA ML and SEA runline, with money% substantially exceeding bet% on both.
SEAmedium
SEA -1.5medium
Under 7.5low
86°F · wind 13 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
Bryan Woo(RHP)
95.5 mph6d rest
W-L 7-4ERA 3.48 / 3.76 RA9WHIP 0.97IP 65
Avg opp offense: HIGH
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | ARI | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/24 | KC | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7.71 | L |
| 5/18 | CWS | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/13 | HOU | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/6 | ATL | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 2.76K% 33.3%BB% 8.9%HH% 34.6%Form ↓ improving
BP9/9 restedxFIP 3.50
Framber Valdez(LHP)
94.4 mph6d rest
W-L 4-7ERA 4.67 / 5.11 RA9WHIP 1.31IP 62
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | CWS | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/24 | BAL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.50 | L |
| 5/18 | CLE | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7.20 | L |
| 5/13 | NYM | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2.70 | L |
| 5/5 | BOS | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21.00 | L |
xFIP 5.38K% 17.8%BB% 13.3%HH% 45.2%Form ↑ declining
BP10/10 restedxFIP 4.29
Confirmed
| vs LHP L8 | 4.26 | 3.4 R/G | 0.391 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.64 | 5.5 R/G | 0.437 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Crawford0.283x0.219--
2Rodríguez0.377x0.406--
3Arozarena0.291x0.407--
4Naylor0.588x0.320--
5Refsnyder0.200x0.214--
6Garver0.225x0.318--
7Young0.340x0.441--
8Robles0.180x0.193--
9Emerson0.500x0.270--
Lineup avg 0.332xwOBA avg 0.310
Confirmed
| vs RHP L10 | 4.37 | 3.9 R/G | 0.399 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.43 | 4.4 R/G | 0.407 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Torres0.508x0.359--
2McGonigle0.305x0.367--
3Dingler0.559x0.546--
4Carpenter0.496x0.317--
5Greene0.418x0.410--
6Torkelson0.318x0.296--
7Keith0.197x0.330--
8McKinstry0.256x0.330--
9Short0.317x0.382--
Lineup avg 0.375xwOBA avg 0.371
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | PeraltaRHP | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0.397 |
| 6/2 | BrazobánRHP | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0.444 |
| 6/1 | WarrenRHP | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0.357 |
| 5/31 | KellyRHP | 3 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0.432 |
| 5/30 | NelsonRHP | 5 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | MartinezRHP | 7 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0.437 |
| 6/2 | MatzLHP | 8 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0.486 |
| 6/1 | JaxRHP | 10 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0.602 |
| 5/31 | BurkeRHP | 1 | 4 | -- | 8 | 5 | 0.330 |
| 5/30 | KayLHP | 1 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -- |
Citizens Bank Park6:40 PM EDT
Chicago White Sox+1.5 (-134)32-25·@12-14·L7: 2-5
Philadelphia Phillies-1.5 (+111)31-26·H15-13·L7: 4-3
O/U8.5
F5 O/U4.5
Home win52%
R/GCWS 5.4 / PHI 2.9
Weather92F / 11mph out to CF+0.6R
LineCWS ML +155 ↓ +154
Anthony Kay has been dominant in his last three starts (3 ER in 16.3 IP), while Luzardo shows solid but less impressive form (4 ER in 17.3 IP). The White Sox offense significantly outperforms the Phillies against LHP (0.395 wOBA vs 0.264), and CWS has averaged 5.8 runs over their last 10 games compared to PHI's anemic 3.0. This matchup heavily favors Chicago despite playing on the road.
CWShigh
CWS +1.5high
Under 8.5high
PHI projects to score roughly 3.6–3.9 runs: Luzardo's xFIP 3.67 (p25-p50 range, strong) over ~4.9 IP suppresses CWS offense that is running hot on luck (wOBA 0.398 vs xwOBA 0.333, -0.065 gap due to regress), and CWS recent L/LHP sample is inflated by a 15-run outlier; PHI's elite bullpen (xFIP 2.93 vs league 4.19) covers the remaining ~4.1 IP. CWS projects to score roughly 2.6–2.9 runs: Kay's xFIP 4.33 (near p50, average) over ~5.3 IP faces a PHI offense that is cold on raw numbers (3.4 R/G last 5, park-neutral 3.30) but xwOBA 0.302 exceeds wOBA 0.249 (sustainable contact), though PHI is on a back-to-back and their LHP splits avg only 4.0 R/G; CWS bullpen (xFIP 4.52 vs league 4.19, below average) covers ~3.7 IP. Environment: CBP (1.04 factor), 92F/10 mph out to CF adds +0.6 runs to the total. Combined estimate ~6.5–7.0 runs vs posted line 8.5 — strong lean toward under. PHI's run advantage (~1.0 run) combined with their elite bullpen supporting a clear win probability but a compressed margin suggests the favorite covers are less than half.
PHImedium
CWS +1.5medium
Under 8.5high
Under 4.5medium
92°F · wind 11 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
PHI is estimated at approximately 3.8-4.0 runs: Luzardo's xFIP 3.67 (p25-p50, strong) over ~4.9 IP suppresses CWS production, but CWS's wOBA vs LHP (0.398) is heavily luck-inflated vs xwOBA (0.333, -0.065 gap), suggesting regression, partially offset by their 5.4 R/G recent average and xwOBA 0.459 in actual LHP games (though against weak competition). CWS is estimated at approximately 3.2-3.5 runs: Kay's xFIP 4.33 (near p50, average) over ~5.3 IP faces a PHI lineup whose wOBA 0.249 vs xwOBA 0.302 (+0.053) shows sustainable underlying contact, though recent output vs LHP averages only 4.0 R/G with a cold momentum label and schedule fatigue (back-to-back). PHI's elite bullpen (xFIP 2.93 vs league 4.19) is a dominant factor after Luzardo exits, though Alvarado and Kerkering are limited. Combined estimate of roughly 7.0-7.5 runs sits below the 8.5 posted total. Sharp money is clearly on the CWS side (away ML and RL both show +19-20pp money>bets).
PHIlow
CWS +1.5medium
Under 8.5medium
92°F · wind 11 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
PHI projects to score approximately 3.8-4.2 runs: their lineup vs LHP carries wOBA 0.180 vs xwOBA 0.269 (a +0.089 gap indicating sustainable upside), but recent 5-game avg is only 3.4 and schedule fatigue (back-to-back) drags the floor; CWS projects to score approximately 4.2-4.8 runs: 5-game avg 5.4 with xwOBA 0.308 supporting sustainability against a Luzardo whose ERA (2.08) is well below xFIP (3.67, ~p50 avg). Combined estimate ~8.2-8.8 runs sits just under to right at the 8.5 posted line. Sharp money annotations show large-dollar action on CWS ML (+12pp), CWS runline (+17pp), and the over (+15pp), with the ML barely moving (+155→+154), suggesting the sharp action has not moved the line materially.
CWSmedium
CWS +1.5medium
Over 8.5medium
92°F · wind 11 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
Anthony Kay(LHP)
93.9 mph6d rest
W-L 7-2ERA 3.74 / 4.14 RA9WHIP 1.38IP 46
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | DET | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1.80 | W |
| 5/25 | MIN | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/19 | SEA | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1.69 | W |
| 5/14 | KC | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3.00 | W |
| 5/9 | SEA | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 4.33K% 20.2%BB% 8.5%HH% 33.9%
BP10/10 restedxFIP 4.52
Jesús Luzardo(LHP)
96.6 mph6d rest
W-L 6-5ERA 3.84 / 4.13 RA9WHIP 1.33IP 61
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | LAD | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3.38 | W |
| 5/25 | SD | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/19 | CIN | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3.00 | L |
| 5/14 | BOS | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/8 | COL | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 15.00 | L |
xFIP 3.67K% 23.9%BB% 9.1%HH% 26.3%Form ↑ declining
BP6/8 restedxFIP 2.932 ltd
Confirmed
| vs LHP L6 | 5.01 | 6.7 R/G | 0.459 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.18 | 5.8 R/G | 0.413 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Meidroth0.554x0.364--
2Grichuk0.375x0.329--
3Vargas0.586x0.544--
4Montgomery0.285x0.373--
5Quero0.320x0.311--
6Hill0.239x0.146--
7Antonacci0.133x0.228--
8Acuña0.278x0.276--
9Peters0.067x0.199--
Lineup avg 0.315xwOBA avg 0.308
Confirmed
| vs LHP L8 | 4.37 | 4.0 R/G | 0.414 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.03 | 3.0 R/G | 0.436 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Schwarber0.461x0.393--
2Turner0.208x0.244--
3Harper0.123x0.421--
4Bohm0.160x0.221--
5Sosa0.000x0.180--
6Realmuto0.000x0.199--
7Marsh0.456x0.259--
8García0.208x0.227--
9Berroa0.000x0.278--
Lineup avg 0.180xwOBA avg 0.269
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | BradleyRHP | 8 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0.537 |
| 6/2 | PrielippLHP | 4 | 8 | -- | 14 | 4 | 0.406 |
| 6/1 | RyanRHP | 6 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0.472 |
| 5/31 | MonteroRHP | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.305 |
| 5/30 | ValdezLHP | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | GiolitoRHP | 6 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0.489 |
| 6/3 | BuehlerRHP | 3 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0.474 |
| 6/2 | VásquezRHP | 3 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.424 |
| 5/31 | YamamotoRHP | 1 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0.430 |
| 5/30 | SasakiRHP | 4 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 2 | -- |
Yankee Stadium7:05 PM EDT
Boston Red Sox+1.5 (-170)25-31·@15-10·L7: 5-2
New York Yankees-1.5 (+145)33-24·H18-11·L7: 2-5
O/U8.0
F5 O/U4
Home win48%
R/GBOS 5.1 / NYY 5.2
Weather85F / 8mph out to CF+0.4R
LineBOS ML +122 ↑ +123
Sonny Gray has been sharp recently with a 3.56 xFIP and strong last two starts, while Ryan Weathers shows volatility with a 3.21 xFIP but inconsistent run prevention. The Red Sox offense is solid against lefties (0.355 wOBA) while the Yankees have been more explosive overall (6.3 runs/game avg), but both teams show streaky patterns that suggest a competitive matchup.
NYYmedium
BOS +1.5medium
Under 8medium
BOS projects ~4.0 runs: their last-5 avg of 6.0 is luck-inflated (wOBA 0.329 vs xwOBA 0.295, -0.034 gap) and they are on a back-to-back, facing Weathers whose xFIP 3.21 (p25 = elite tier) vastly understates his ERA 4.74 — the ERA is inflated and likely to improve, projecting ~6.0 IP; BOS bullpen is elite (avg xFIP 3.14 vs league 4.19) but only relevant for remaining innings. NYY projects ~3.4 runs: their last-10 vs RHP avg is a stark 3.2 R/G (xwOBA 0.397 but actual results suppressed), facing Gray whose xFIP 3.56 (p25-p50 range, strong) over ~4.6 IP with a depleted NYY bullpen (5 rested, avg xFIP 4.19, setup arm Cruz unavailable, Bednar/Headrick limited) offering modest protection; combined estimate ~7.4 runs vs the 8.0 posted total, with weather (+0.4) bringing it to ~7.8 — still slightly under. The dominant market signal is the total sitting at 8.0 with 73%/83% of bets/money on the over, suggesting the market has fully priced the weather and both offenses' raw recent form.
BOSmedium
BOS +1.5medium
Under 8medium
Under 4medium
85°F · wind 8 mph out to CF+0.4 R
data unavailable
BOS projects ~4.2 runs facing Weathers (xFIP 3.21, p25-strong, ~6.0 IP) -- BOS vs LHP wOBA 0.329 overstates true production vs xwOBA 0.295, luck-driven regression expected, back-to-back fatigue applies, but Weathers' ERA 4.74 is +1.54 above xFIP meaning his recent run-prevention is better than results; NYY projects ~3.6 runs facing Gray (xFIP 3.56, p25-strong, ~4.6 IP) -- NYY vs RHP averaging 3.2 R/G over last 10 games with xwOBA 0.397 context inflated by weak opponents, wOBA 0.307/xwOBA 0.294 near-aligned, back-to-back fatigue, but Gray's short projected workload (4.6 IP) exposes BOS's bullpen (avg xFIP 3.14, excellent) which mitigates risk; combined estimate ~7.8 runs vs posted 8.0, slight under lean; sharp money on NYY runline home_minus (+35pp) and over (+10pp) is the dominant market signal.
NYYlow
BOS +1.5medium
Under 8low
85°F · wind 8 mph out to CF+0.4 R
data unavailable
Sonny Gray(RHP)
90.4 mph6d rest
W-L 7-2ERA 2.74WHIP 1.15IP 46
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | CLE | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/24 | MIN | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6.75 | L |
| 5/18 | KC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/13 | PHI | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/6 | DET | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 3.56K% 23.8%BB% 7.9%HH% 29.3%
BP9/10 restedxFIP 3.141 ltd
Ryan Weathers(LHP)
94.3 mph6d rest
W-L 6-4ERA 3.62 / 3.92 RA9WHIP 1.12IP 60
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | ATH | 7 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 6.75 | L |
| 5/24 | TB | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/18 | TOR | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8.44 | W |
| 5/11 | BAL | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2.84 | L |
| 5/2 | BAL | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.80 | W |
xFIP 3.21K% 27.8%BB% 8.3%HH% 34.8%
BP5/8 restedxFIP 4.191 out2 ltd
Last Known
| vs LHP L8 | 4.14 | 5.3 R/G | 0.408 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.00 | 5.4 R/G | 0.389 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Duran0.267x0.258--
2Rafaela0.268x0.196--
3Abreu0.559x0.503--
4Contreras0.436x0.380--
5Kiner-Falefa0.200x0.349--
6Monasterio0.356x0.207--
7Durbin0.564x0.561--
8Narváez0.129x0.061--
9Wong0.180x0.145--
Lineup avg 0.329xwOBA avg 0.295
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.49 | 3.2 R/G | 0.397 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.06 | 6.3 R/G | 0.388 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Grisham0.465x0.343--
2Rice0.388x0.336--
3Goldschmidt0.202x0.203--
4Bellinger0.352x0.427--
5Jr.0.248x0.291--
6Caballero0.300x0.304--
7McMahon0.319x0.269--
8Escarra0.283x0.232--
9Schuemann0.208x0.239--
Lineup avg 0.307xwOBA avg 0.294
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | RogersLHP | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0.295 |
| 6/3 | BassittRHP | 8 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0.431 |
| 6/2 | BazRHP | 2 | 5 | -- | 9 | 2 | 0.306 |
| 5/31 | BibeeRHP | 9 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 0.510 |
| 5/30 | MessickLHP | 9 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | CecconiRHP | 2 | 5 | -- | 7 | 2 | 0.330 |
| 6/3 | WilliamsRHP | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0.464 |
| 6/2 | CantilloLHP | 4 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.380 |
| 5/31 | LopezLHP | 13 | 11 | -- | 10 | 5 | 0.367 |
| 5/30 | GinnRHP | 4 | 6 | -- | 8 | 9 | -- |
Baltimore Orioles+1.5 (-160)28-30·@11-18·L7: 3-4
Toronto Blue Jays-1.5 (+135)26-32·H13-12·L7: 5-2
O/U8.0
F5 O/U4.5
Home win49%
R/GBAL 5.1 / TOR 3.9
Weather77F / 13mph out to CF+0.4R
LineO/U 8 ↑ 8.5
Yesavage presents a significant pitching advantage with a 3.23 xFIP, elite 29.5% K-rate, and low walk rate, while Young shows concerning metrics (4.53 xFIP, 11.7% BB rate, 36.4% HardHit%). Baltimore's offense is substantially stronger against RHP (.404 wOBA vs Toronto's .339), but Yesavage's recent form and strikeout ability should suppress run production. Toronto's offense has been anemic (3.7 runs/game last 10) and faces a pitcher in a groove, while Baltimore's superior lineup faces a vulnerable starter.
BALmedium
BAL +1.5medium
Under 8high
TOR projects to score roughly 3.8-4.2 runs behind Yesavage (xFIP 3.23, p25-elite, 29.5 K%, 31.5 HardHit%) holding BAL's hot offense (~5.6 last 5, but back-to-back fatigue, xwOBA 0.385 sustainable) to a below-average output; BAL projects to score roughly 4.4-4.8 runs behind Young (xFIP 4.53, above p75-weak, 11.7 BB%, ERA 3.16 deflated vs xFIP suggesting regression) against a TOR offense that is luck-driven (wOBA 0.389 vs xwOBA 0.359, -0.030 gap) and struggling at 3.6 R/G vs RHP starters. Combined estimate ~8.3-9.0 runs vs posted 8.0/8.5 line (total moved up to 8.5), with +0.4 wind boost and a weak TOR bullpen (xFIP 4.87 vs league 4.19) adding late-inning run exposure; market total moved 8.0->8.5 with 96% of money on the over, confirming the lean.
BALmedium
BAL +1.5medium
Over 8medium
Under 4.5medium
77°F · wind 13 mph out to CF+0.4 R
data unavailable
BAL projects ~4.8 runs: hot offense (5.6 avg last 5, wOBA 0.394 vs xwOBA 0.385 — sustainable, not luck-driven) facing Yesavage (xFIP 3.23, p25-strong, ~5.4 IP), then a weak TOR bullpen (xFIP 4.87, well above league 4.19 RA/9 avg). TOR projects ~4.1 runs: offense showing wOBA 0.389 vs xwOBA 0.359 (-0.030, luck-driven, due to regress) facing Young (xFIP 4.53, above p50-avg, ~5.5 IP projected), with BAL bullpen meaningfully better (xFIP 4.08, near league avg). Combined estimate ~8.9 runs vs posted line 8.0 (moved to 8.5 pre-game context note shows open 8.0, current 8.5); wind out to CF +0.4 runs, Rogers Centre neutral (1.01). Sharp money annotations show large-dollar action on BAL ML (+18pp money>bets) and TOR runline (+38pp), with the total over drawing +10pp sharp-money lean.
BALmedium
BAL +1.5medium
Over 8medium
77°F · wind 13 mph out to CF+0.4 R
data unavailable
Brandon Young(RHP)
93.6 mph6d rest
W-L 7-1ERA 3.35 / 5.02 RA9WHIP 1.37IP 43
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | TOR | 7 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2.70 | W |
| 5/24 | DET | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/17 | WSH | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4.91 | W |
| 5/11 | NYY | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3.38 | W |
| 5/6 | MIA | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4.50 | W |
xFIP 4.53K% 18.1%BB% 11.7%HH% 36.4%Form ↓ improving
BP6/10 restedxFIP 4.084 ltd
Trey Yesavage(RHP)
94.4 mph6d rest
W-L 3-4ERA 2.19WHIP 1.16IP 37
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | BAL | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1.80 | L |
| 5/25 | MIA | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6.75 | L |
| 5/20 | NYY | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/15 | DET | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3.00 | L |
| 5/9 | LAA | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 3.23K% 29.5%BB% 8.0%HH% 31.5%
BP8/12 restedxFIP 4.874 ltd
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.96 | 5.0 R/G | 0.460 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.70 | 6.0 R/G | 0.431 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Ward0.284x0.339--
2Henderson0.488x0.383--
3Rutschman0.356x0.416--
4Alonso0.467x0.416--
5Basallo0.432x0.562--
6Taveras0.379x0.311--
7Cowser0.532x0.432--
8Mayo0.203x0.202--
9Holliday0.408x0.403--
Lineup avg 0.394xwOBA avg 0.385
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.70 | 3.6 R/G | 0.402 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.86 | 4.3 R/G | 0.409 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Springer0.336x0.365--
2Clement0.501x0.244--
3Jr.0.349x0.386--
4Okamoto0.314x0.249--
5McAdoo0.225x0.638--
6Lukes0.527x0.399--
7Straw0.180x0.183--
8Heineman0.658x0.427--
9Piñango0.411x0.337--
Lineup avg 0.389xwOBA avg 0.359
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | BelloRHP | 8 | 10 | -- | 8 | 7 | 0.493 |
| 6/3 | TolleLHP | 1 | 9 | -- | 7 | 4 | 0.362 |
| 6/2 | EarlyLHP | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0.368 |
| 5/31 | MilesRHP | 9 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0.447 |
| 5/30 | YesavageRHP | 6 | 7 | -- | 7 | 11 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | SaleLHP | 7 | 16 | -- | 9 | 4 | 0.397 |
| 6/3 | HolmesRHP | 3 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0.476 |
| 6/2 | ElderRHP | 3 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0.299 |
| 5/31 | BradishRHP | 5 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.376 |
| 5/30 | YoungRHP | 5 | 11 | -- | 9 | 3 | -- |
loanDepot park7:10 PM EDT
Tampa Bay Rays-1.5 (+125)34-20·@13-11·L7: 2-5
Miami Marlins+1.5 (-145)25-33·H14-14·L7: 4-3
O/U7.5
F5 O/U4
Home win49%
R/GTB 4.8 / MIA 3.7
Weather76F / 6mph in from CF
LineTB ML -140 ↑ -139
Ryan Gusto presents a significant regression risk with an elite 1.89 xFIP and 0.0% BB rate that are unsustainable, while Drew Rasmussen shows volatility but has pitched well in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Marlins' offense has been more consistent (4.1 RPG avg) with better recent metrics against RHP, while Tampa Bay's offense is streaky (3.7 RPG avg) and faces a pitcher likely to regress from his current elite form.
MIAmedium
MIA +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
TB projects for ~3.5-4.0 runs: their last-5 avg of 3.8 is somewhat sustainable (xwOBA 0.346 vs wOBA 0.336, no luck inflation), but they face Ryan Gusto who has essentially no 30-day sample (2.0 IP) making him nearly impossible to project -- treated as an unknown/placeholder starter projecting only ~2 IP, meaning TB faces MIA's bullpen (xFIP 3.84, below league RA/9 4.19) for ~7 innings. MIA projects for ~2.5-3.0 runs: their last-5 avg of 4.0 is luck-inflated (wOBA 0.363 vs xwOBA 0.322, -0.041 gap signaling regression), and they face Rasmussen whose xFIP of 3.22 sits at p25 (elite tier) with HardHit% of 28.8% well below league median of 39.1%, projecting ~5.6 IP of genuine suppression; combined estimate ~6.5-7.0 runs vs posted total of 7.5. The dominant structural signal is Gusto's near-zero workload forcing TB to beat a strong MIA bullpen for most of the game, while Rasmussen's elite peripherals keep MIA's overperforming offense in check.
TBmedium
MIA +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
Under 4medium
76°F · wind 6 mph in from CF-0.1 R
data unavailable
TB projects ~3.8-4.0 runs: recent 5-game avg 3.8, xwOBA 0.346 vs RHP is sustainable (wOBA 0.336 slightly below, no luck inflation), facing Gusto who has only 2.0 IP in 30 days (LOW SAMPLE, treat 1.89 xFIP as near-meaningless), projected ~2.0 IP, forcing early exposure to MIA bullpen (xFIP 3.84, slightly above league avg 4.19 -- actually better than league). MIA projects ~3.0-3.2 runs: recent 5-game avg 4.0 but wOBA 0.363 vs xwOBA 0.322 is a significant luck-driven gap (-0.041), contact momentum labeled HOT is not supported by underlying contact quality; facing Rasmussen whose xFIP 3.22 is p25-level (strong) over 5.6 projected IP. Park is neutral (1.01), wind -0.1 runs, combined estimate ~6.8-7.2 vs posted 7.5. Sharp money annotations show heavy professional action on TB ML (-15pp bets vs money) and TB RL (-55pp), and the line has barely moved (-140 to -139), suggesting the market has absorbed this without repricing -- consistent with the market already holding TB as a fair favorite.
TBmedium
MIA +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
76°F · wind 6 mph in from CF-0.1 R
data unavailable
Drew Rasmussen(RHP)
93.8 mph6d rest
W-L 6-4ERA 3.50 / 3.83 RA9WHIP 1.04IP 54
Avg opp offense: LOW
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | LAA | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11.25 | L |
| 5/24 | NYY | 7 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/17 | MIA | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3.38 | W |
| 5/11 | TOR | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4.50 | W |
| 5/5 | TOR | 6 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 4.50 | W |
xFIP 3.22K% 19.7%BB% 5.6%HH% 28.8%
BP10/10 restedxFIP 4.08
Ryan Gusto(RHP)
92.3 mph
No recent data
xFIP 1.89K% 27.3%BB% 0.0%HH% 37.5%
BP9/9 restedxFIP 3.84
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 4.47 | 4.3 R/G | 0.399 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.07 | 3.7 R/G | 0.400 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Simpson0.259x0.243--
2Caminero0.382x0.331--
3Aranda0.478x0.523--
4Díaz0.448x0.387--
5Palacios0.266x0.251--
6Williamson0.340x0.310--
7Mullins0.348x0.442--
8Fortes0.218x0.210--
9Jr.0.289x0.418--
Lineup avg 0.336xwOBA avg 0.346
Confirmed
| vs RHP L10 | 3.79 | 3.6 R/G | 0.382 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.78 | 4.1 R/G | 0.443 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Hicks0.374x0.2863PA .000
2Lopez0.358x0.3733PA .500
3Stowers0.462x0.3413PA .000
4Edwards0.389x0.3753PA .667
5Sanoja0.264x0.228--
6Caissie0.491x0.2932PA .500
7Marsee0.246x0.3673PA .667
8Mack0.385x0.385--
9Ruiz0.217x0.183--
Lineup avg 0.354xwOBA avg 0.315
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | MeltonRHP | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.344 |
| 6/2 | FlahertyRHP | 0 | 5 | -- | 10 | 2 | 0.374 |
| 6/1 | MaddenRHP | 9 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0.484 |
| 5/31 | KochanowiczRHP | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0.403 |
| 5/30 | DetmersLHP | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 8 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | AlvarezLHP | 4 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 0.512 |
| 6/2 | LoveladyLHP | 7 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0.520 |
| 6/1 | CavalliRHP | 7 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 0.505 |
| 5/31 | McLeanRHP | 1 | 3 | -- | 5 | 7 | 0.352 |
| 5/30 | ScottRHP | 1 | 6 | -- | 15 | 3 | -- |
Pittsburgh Pirates+1.5 (-171)32-26·@14-11·L7: 4-3
Atlanta Braves-1.5 (+145)39-19·H16-9·L7: 4-3
O/U8.5
F5 O/U4.5
Home win52%
R/GPIT 6.0 / ATL 5.3
Weather85F / 9mph out to CF+0.5R
LinePIT ML +118 ↑ +123
Martín Pérez shows superior recent form with a 3.20 xFIP and elite 27.1% K-rate, while Mitch Keller is regressing after a disastrous last outing (7 ER in 4 IP). The Pirates' offense struggles significantly against LHP (0.237 wOBA), while the Braves' lineup hits well against RHP (0.310 xwOBA), creating a favorable matchup for Atlanta.
ATLhigh
ATL -1.5medium
Under 8.5medium
ATL projects to score approximately 4.5-5.0 runs facing Mitch Keller (xFIP 4.25, above p50 league average, ERA 6.88 inflated but xFIP trending worse 3.88->4.25, projected only 5.6 IP) with a solid bullpen (xFIP 3.42 vs league 4.19) and wOBA 0.320/xwOBA 0.317 vs RHP (sustainable, not luck-driven). PIT projects to score approximately 3.5-4.0 runs facing Martín Pérez (xFIP 3.20, elite near p25, ERA 4.01 likely to improve) with wOBA 0.262/xwOBA 0.250 vs LHP (cold contact momentum, K% 26.5% above league median 21%), offset partially by PIT's red-hot recent run scoring (avg 8.6 last 5 games) but heavily discounted given the xwOBA 0.250 sustainability check vs LHP. Combined estimate of ~8.3-9.0 runs vs the 8.5 posted line is roughly in line, with weather (+0.5 wind out to CF, 85F) pushing slightly over. ATL is clearly the better team today with Pérez's elite xFIP, a superior bullpen, and sustainable offense vs a deteriorating Keller, but the run gap (~1.0-1.5 runs) keeps the runline close to the market anchor.
ATLmedium
PIT +1.5medium
Over 8.5low
Under 4.5medium
85°F · wind 9 mph out to CF+0.5 R
data unavailable
ATL projects ~4.4 runs facing Keller (xFIP 4.25, p50 avg, ERA 6.88 but +2.63 above xFIP so ERA is near-noise, ~5.6 IP projected); PIT projects ~3.5-3.8 runs facing Pérez (xFIP 3.20, p25 strong, ~4.1 IP projected), held down by a cold platoon split vs LHP (wOBA 0.262, xwOBA 0.250, K% 26.5 vs LHP) despite their recent 5-game HOT streak (avg 8.6 R/G) which is partially luck-driven against weaker pitching. Combined ~7.9-8.2 vs posted total of 8.5, with weather adding ~+0.5 (wind out to CF, 85F) pushing total toward 8.4-8.7. ATL's bullpen (5 available, xFIP 3.42 vs league 4.19) is materially stronger than PIT's (8 available, xFIP 4.23 near league average), but ATL loses setup arm López and has two limited arms; sharp money on the ML leans toward the away side (PIT ML money 44% vs 16% bets, +28pp) while sharp RL money favors ATL home_minus (+32pp).
ATLlow
PIT +1.5low
Under 8.5low
85°F · wind 9 mph out to CF+0.5 R
data unavailable
Mitch Keller(RHP)
92.4 mph6d rest
W-L 7-4ERA 4.76WHIP 1.24IP 62
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | MIN | 4 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 15.75 | W |
| 5/24 | TOR | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/19 | STL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6.35 | L |
| 5/13 | COL | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9.53 | L |
| 5/7 | ARI | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3.00 | W |
xFIP 4.25K% 17.1%BB% 8.6%HH% 34.0%Form ↑ declining
BP8/9 restedxFIP 4.231 out
Martín Pérez(LHP)
88.3 mph6d rest
W-L 4-4ERA 2.98WHIP 1.18IP 42
Avg opp offense: HIGH
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | CIN | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3.60 | W |
| 5/24 | WSH | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.59 | L |
| 5/19 | MIA | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7.20 | W |
| 5/6 | SEA | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3.18 | L |
| 4/28 | DET | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 3.20K% 27.1%BB% 7.1%HH% 39.1%
BP5/8 restedxFIP 3.421 out2 ltd
Last Known
| vs LHP L7 | 4.18 | 3.7 R/G | 0.441 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.16 | 6.9 R/G | 0.476 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Horwitz0.456x0.322--
2Lowe0.250x0.224--
3Reynolds0.682x0.569--
4O'Hearn0.000x0.020--
5Gonzales0.200x0.306--
6Cruz0.356x0.283--
7Rodríguez0.000x0.044--
8Mangum0.000x0.117--
9Triolo0.417x0.368--
Lineup avg 0.262xwOBA avg 0.250
Confirmed
| vs RHP L10 | 3.99 | 4.8 R/G | 0.387 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.02 | 4.8 R/G | 0.415 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Acuña0.404x0.391--
2Harris0.376x0.385--
3Olson0.329x0.282--
4Albies0.358x0.340--
5Dubón0.400x0.341--
6Smith0.227x0.291--
7Riley0.218x0.309--
8Yastrzemski0.563x0.433--
9León0.000x0.079--
Lineup avg 0.320xwOBA avg 0.317
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | TengRHP | 5 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0.384 |
| 6/3 | ArrighettiRHP | 9 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 0.536 |
| 6/2 | BurrowsRHP | 10 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 0.519 |
| 5/31 | MatthewsRHP | 9 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 0.464 |
| 5/30 | OberRHP | 10 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | FluhartyLHP | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.339 |
| 6/3 | CorbinLHP | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.419 |
| 6/2 | GausmanRHP | 4 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0.306 |
| 5/31 | LodoloLHP | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0.485 |
| 5/30 | SingerRHP | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -- |
Minute Maid Park8:10 PM EDT
Athletics-1.5 (+145)29-28·@18-11·L7: 4-3
Houston Astros+1.5 (-175)24-34·H10-16·L7: 2-5
O/U9.0
F5 O/U5 ↓ 4.5
Home win45%
R/GATH 4.3 / HOU 4.9
Weather80F / 6mph R→L+0.2R
LineATH ML -110 ↓ -110
Houston's offense has been significantly more productive (6.3 runs/game vs ATH's 3.2) and maintains a slight edge in wOBA against RHP. While Lambert shows concerning peripherals (high BB%, 44.1% HardHit%), he's trending positively with recent starts improving. Perkins lacks recent data but shows solid strikeout rates, though his 4.23 xFIP suggests vulnerability.
HOUmedium
HOU +1.5medium
Over 9medium
ATH offense has been hot (last-5 avg 5.4 R/G) but faces HOU's Peter Lambert whose xFIP 4.22 (near p50 average) is improving week-over-week and whose ERA 5.62 is inflated vs xFIP suggesting regression toward his peripherals; however Lambert projects only 5.8 IP and HOU's bullpen is taxed with key arms limited. HOU offense averages 5.4 R/G over last 5 but faces Jack Perkins in only ~1.9 IP, then ATH's bullpen which loses closer Kuhnel and setup Leiter Jr. to back-to-back unavailability, leaving rested arms with avg xFIP 4.10 (near league RA/9 4.19). Combined run estimate is approximately 4.5 (ATH) + 4.8 (HOU) = ~9.3, slightly above the 9.0 posted total, with the dominant market signal being heavy smart money on the over (99% of money) and on HOU ML (79% of money vs 49% of tickets).
HOUmedium
HOU +1.5medium
Over 9medium
Under 4.5low
80°F · wind 6 mph R→L+0.2 R
data unavailable
ATH offense averages 5.4 R/G last 5 (HOT), xwOBA 0.310 confirming sustainable contact, facing Lambert (xFIP 4.22, ~avg percentile, ERA 5.62 inflated +1.40 over xFIP, projected 5.8 IP). HOU offense averages 5.4 R/G last 5, xwOBA 0.310 sustainable (wOBA 0.286 vs xwOBA 0.310, +0.024 positive gap), facing Perkins (xFIP 4.23, ~avg, but projected only 1.9 IP, leaving ~7.1 IP to ATH bullpen). Combined run estimate projects ~9.3-9.5 runs vs posted 9.0 total, with sharp money heavily on over (99% of money vs 68% of bets, +31pp gap annotated as professional action). Sharp money on HOU ML also notable (+30pp money over bets). ATH closer (Kuhnel) and setup (Leiter Jr.) both unavailable; HOU bullpen rested xFIP 4.52 slightly above league RA/9 4.19.
HOUmedium
HOU +1.5low
Over 9medium
80°F · wind 6 mph R→L+0.2 R
data unavailable
Jack Perkins(RHP)
95.5 mph
No recent data
xFIP 4.23K% 21.7%BB% 3.3%HH% 21.4%Form ↑ declining
BP5/9 restedxFIP 4.103 out1 ltd
Peter Lambert(RHP)
93.6 mph6d rest
W-L 4-4ERA 3.77WHIP 1.21IP 45
Avg opp offense: LOW
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | MIL | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3.60 | W |
| 5/24 | CHC | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5.40 | W |
| 5/17 | TEX | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7.50 | L |
| 5/12 | SEA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3.86 | L |
| 5/6 | LAD | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 4.22K% 22.7%BB% 9.3%HH% 40.8%Form ↓ improving
BP4/7 restedxFIP 4.521 out2 ltd
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 4.20 | 3.0 R/G | 0.398 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.08 | 3.8 R/G | 0.411 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Bolte0.378x0.316--
2Kurtz0.473x0.458--
3Langeliers0.179x0.256--
4Thomas-----
5Soderstrom0.410x0.377--
6Heim0.342x0.379--
7Gelof0.307x0.249--
8McNeil0.214x0.269--
9Williams0.200x0.174--
Lineup avg 0.313xwOBA avg 0.310
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.63 | 5.6 R/G | 0.400 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.63 | 5.6 R/G | 0.400 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Peña0.394x0.362--
2Alvarez0.484x0.466--
3Walker0.314x0.232--
4Paredes0.354x0.385--
5Jr.0.000x0.342--
6Smith0.324x0.338--
7Trammell0.280x0.216--
8Price0.175x0.287--
9Allen0.247x0.163--
Lineup avg 0.286xwOBA avg 0.310
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | ImanagaLHP | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0.429 |
| 6/3 | ReaRHP | 5 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.499 |
| 6/2 | TaillonRHP | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0.406 |
| 5/31 | WarrenRHP | 8 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0.508 |
| 5/30 | WeathersLHP | 6 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 3 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | JonesRHP | 1 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0.425 |
| 6/3 | SkenesRHP | 11 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 0.420 |
| 6/2 | ChandlerRHP | 6 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 0.355 |
| 5/31 | MisiorowskiRHP | 0 | 3 | -- | 11 | 1 | 0.353 |
| 5/30 | SproatRHP | 9 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -- |
Cincinnati Reds+1.5 (-171)28-28·@15-14·L7: 4-3
St. Louis Cardinals-1.5 (+145)29-26·H13-14·L7: 3-4
O/U9.0
F5 O/U5
Home win44%
R/GCIN 4.2 / STL 3.3
Weather88F / 12mph out to CF+0.6R
LineCIN ML +115 ↑ +120
This matchup features two mediocre starters with concerning recent trends. Singer shows volatility with inconsistent outings, while Leahy has elevated walk rates and hard-hit contact issues. The Cardinals' superior offensive metrics (0.375 wOBA vs RHP) give them an edge against Singer, though both offenses have been inconsistent.
STLmedium
CIN +1.5medium
Under 9medium
CIN is estimated at ~3.8 runs: their last-5 avg of 3.2 rpg is luck-inflated (wOBA 0.329 vs xwOBA 0.298, -0.031 gap), and they face Leahy whose xFIP 4.64 sits at the p75 weak threshold—however his HardHit% 50.0% (well above 39.1% median) and severe platoon split (vs L wOBA 0.394) are partially offset by CIN's RHP-heavy lineup (K% 29.7 vs RHP). STL is estimated at ~4.2 runs: their last-5 avg of 3.2 rpg is also luck-inflated (wOBA 0.418 vs xwOBA 0.365, -0.053 gap, COLD contact momentum), but Singer's ERA 7.80 is massively inflated vs xFIP 3.96 (near p50), with improving trend and only ~4.4 IP projected, handing ~4.6 IP to CIN's weak bullpen (avg xFIP 4.93 vs league 4.19). Combined estimate ~8.0 runs vs posted total 9.0, with +0.6 weather boost bringing it to ~8.6—still slightly under the line. STL's elite bullpen (xFIP 3.68 vs league 4.19) is a significant factor suppressing CIN's late-inning production, supporting a home win but not a blowout given STL's cold, luck-inflated offense.
STLmedium
CIN +1.5medium
Under 9medium
Under 5medium
88°F · wind 12 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
CIN projects ~3.5 runs: their last-5 avg is 3.2, wOBA 0.329 vs xwOBA 0.298 flags luck-driven production due to regress, K% 29.7 vs RHP suppresses output, and Leahy's xFIP 4.64 (p75, weak) over ~5.2 IP with a severe platoon split (vs L wOBA 0.394, vs R 0.241) matters less since CIN's lineup vs RHP is the relevant side; STL bullpen xFIP 3.68 is well below league 4.19 RA/9. STL projects ~3.6 runs: last-5 avg 3.2, wOBA 0.418 vs xwOBA 0.365 is also luck-driven and due to regress, contact momentum COLD, but Singer's ERA 7.80 vs xFIP 3.96 (near p50, average) is a massive divergence flagging inflated ERA as near-noise; Singer projects ~4.4 IP, CIN bullpen xFIP 4.93 is well above league. Weather (+0.6 runs, wind out to CF, 88F) and a neutral park (0.98) push the combined estimate to roughly 7.7 runs vs the posted 9.0 total. Sharp money is notably on the over (99% of money vs 68% of bets) and on CIN ML/STL RL sides, with line moving from -135 to -143 on STL.
STLlow
CIN +1.5low
Under 9medium
88°F · wind 12 mph out to CF+0.6 R
data unavailable
Brady Singer(RHP)
90.4 mph6d rest
W-L 4-6ERA 6.13 / 6.32 RA9WHIP 1.68IP 47
Avg opp offense: HIGH
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | ATL | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5.40 | L |
| 5/17 | CLE | 4 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 11.25 | L |
| 5/12 | WSH | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7.36 | L |
| 5/6 | CHC | 6 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 6.00 | L |
| 5/1 | PIT | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10.80 | L |
xFIP 3.96K% 22.2%BB% 4.8%HH% 40.0%Form ↓ improving
BP10/10 restedxFIP 4.93
Kyle Leahy(RHP)
94.0 mph6d rest
W-L 5-5ERA 3.96WHIP 1.52IP 50
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | CHC | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2.08 | L |
| 5/23 | CIN | 5 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9.00 | L |
| 5/16 | KC | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1.50 | W |
| 5/10 | SD | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/4 | MIL | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.69 | W |
xFIP 4.64K% 21.4%BB% 12.9%HH% 50.0%
BP10/10 restedxFIP 3.68
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 4.05 | 4.3 R/G | 0.451 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.71 | 3.6 R/G | 0.428 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Dunn0.292x0.2493PA .667
2Bleday0.431x0.3823PA .000
3Stewart0.355x0.3133PA .000
4Lowe0.418x0.4183PA .667
5Suárez0.279x0.337--
6Steer0.327x0.273--
7Benson0.411x0.2352PA .500
8Stephenson0.274x0.277--
9McLain0.178x0.1943PA .000
Lineup avg 0.329xwOBA avg 0.298
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.67 | 3.3 R/G | 0.424 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.46 | 3.2 R/G | 0.404 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Winn0.306x0.282--
2Herrera0.397x0.396--
3Walker0.355x0.306--
4Velázquez0.540x0.412--
5Burleson0.330x0.255--
6Fermín0.631x0.429--
7Gorman0.193x0.138--
8Saggese0.700x0.702--
9II0.313x0.371--
Lineup avg 0.418xwOBA avg 0.365
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | KolekRHP | 2 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.396 |
| 6/2 | CameronLHP | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0.364 |
| 6/1 | AvilaRHP | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 0.453 |
| 5/31 | StriderRHP | 6 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 0.451 |
| 5/30 | PérezLHP | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | GoreLHP | 5 | 11 | -- | 8 | 3 | 0.378 |
| 6/2 | EovaldiRHP | 4 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0.418 |
| 6/1 | deGromRHP | 1 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0.377 |
| 5/31 | WicksLHP | 5 | 8 | -- | 5 | 4 | 0.351 |
| 5/30 | BrownRHP | 1 | 5 | -- | 7 | 2 | -- |
Globe Life Field8:15 PM EDT
Cleveland Guardians-1.5 (+126)33-25·@16-11·L7: 5-2
Texas Rangers+1.5 (-150)26-31·H15-13·L7: 4-3
O/U7.5
F5 O/U4
Home win52%
R/GCLE 3.1 / TEX 4.8
Weather78F / 9mph R→L
LineCLE ML -142 ↑ -126
Parker Messick has been dominant over his last three starts with a 3.38 xFIP and strong strikeout rate, while Kumar Rocker shows inconsistency (4.10 xFIP) with a concerning 11.8% walk rate. Texas's offense has been explosive against lefties (0.592 wOBA) but Cleveland's lineup struggles significantly against righties (0.251 xwOBA), creating a favorable matchup for Rocker despite his recent volatility.
CLEmedium
TEX +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
CLE projects to score roughly 3.2–3.5 runs: their last-5 avg of 4.0 is tempered by a wOBA/xwOBA gap vs RHP (0.267/0.247, -0.020, luck-driven regression signal), back-to-back schedule fatigue, and Rocker's xFIP of 4.10 (near p50 league average) over ~5.3 IP offset by TEX's weak bullpen (xFIP 4.21, above league RA/9 4.19). TEX projects to score roughly 3.8–4.2 runs: their last-5 avg of 5.0 inflated by a massive wOBA/xwOBA gap vs LHP (0.437/0.342, -0.095, heavy luck-driven regression), but Messick is elite right now (xFIP 3.38, p25 strong) over ~5.2 IP with CLE's elite bullpen (xFIP 2.81, far below league RA/9 4.19) protecting the rest; Globe Life parks at 0.95 suppresses both. Combined estimate ~7.0–7.7 vs posted 7.5, essentially at the line — mixed signals. The dominant market signal is sharp money fading CLE on the ML (line moved from -142 to -125, money split 43% CLE despite 77% of tickets) while runline money heavily backs CLE -1.5 (88% of money), a disconnect suggesting sharpness on CLE covering but value disagreement on the ML price.
CLEmedium
TEX +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
Under 4medium
78°F · wind 9 mph R→L+0.1 R
data unavailable
CLE projects to score approximately 3.2-3.5 runs facing Rocker (xFIP 4.10, near p50/average, ~5.3 IP) with a mediocre TEX bullpen (avg xFIP 4.21, roughly league average at 4.19 RA/9), but CLE's offense is on a back-to-back, averaging 4.0 runs last 5 games vs RHP with wOBA 0.267 outpacing xwOBA 0.247 (luck-driven, regress expected), yielding an estimate near 3.3 runs. TEX projects to score approximately 3.6-3.9 runs facing Messick (xFIP 3.38, strong p25 tier, ~5.2 IP) with an elite CLE bullpen (avg xFIP 2.81, well below league 4.19 RA/9), but TEX's wOBA 0.437 vs LHP dwarfs xwOBA 0.342 (-0.095 gap, heavily luck-driven regression expected), pulling the estimate down despite a 5.0 runs/game last-5 average, yielding roughly 3.6-3.8 runs. Combined estimate ~6.9-7.2 runs vs posted line of 7.5. Sharp money is on the home side (ML) and under (total), and the line moved from CLE -142 to -125, a meaningful 17-point shift against CLE.
TEXmedium
TEX +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
78°F · wind 9 mph R→L+0.1 R
data unavailable
Parker Messick(LHP)
92.4 mph6d rest
W-L 8-3ERA 2.42 / 2.56 RA9WHIP 1.09IP 63
Avg opp offense: LOW
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | BOS | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1.80 | L |
| 5/24 | PHI | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/19 | DET | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3.60 | W |
| 5/13 | LAA | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2.70 | W |
| 5/8 | MIN | 6 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1.59 | W |
xFIP 3.38K% 27.5%BB% 8.7%HH% 40.9%
BP7/9 restedxFIP 2.812 ltd
Kumar Rocker(RHP)
92.9 mph6d rest
W-L 3-7ERA 4.10WHIP 1.41IP 48
Avg opp offense: LOW
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | KC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/25 | HOU | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7.20 | L |
| 5/14 | ARI | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/9 | CHC | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7.36 | L |
| 5/2 | DET | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 22.50 | L |
xFIP 4.10K% 22.1%BB% 11.8%HH% 38.6%
BP10/10 restedxFIP 4.21
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 4.05 | 4.5 R/G | 0.367 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.16 | 3.5 R/G | 0.379 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Fry0.360x0.253--
2Ramírez0.248x0.293--
3Hoskins0.290x0.211--
4Bazzana0.365x0.319--
5Martínez0.187x0.225--
6Fairchild-----
7Kwan0.248x0.203--
8Hedges0.129x0.266--
9Rocchio0.311x0.208--
Lineup avg 0.267xwOBA avg 0.247
Last Known
| vs LHP L5 | 4.10 | 4.6 R/G | 0.410 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.33 | 4.8 R/G | 0.394 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Pederson1.075x0.656--
2Jung-----
3Nimmo0.331x0.483--
4Burger0.500x0.362--
5Duran0.000x0.002--
6Osuna0.000x0.205--
7Carter0.000x0.116--
8Higashioka0.487x0.359--
9Lopez1.100x0.557--
Lineup avg 0.437xwOBA avg 0.342
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | RodónLHP | 1 | 2 | -- | 8 | 4 | 0.366 |
| 6/3 | ColeRHP | 5 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0.351 |
| 6/2 | SchlittlerRHP | 9 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0.361 |
| 5/31 | SuarezLHP | 4 | 11 | -- | 15 | 3 | 0.425 |
| 5/30 | GrayRHP | 1 | 6 | -- | 11 | 4 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | PallanteRHP | 3 | 6 | -- | 8 | 5 | 0.397 |
| 6/2 | MayRHP | 7 | 9 | -- | 15 | 4 | 0.498 |
| 6/1 | McGreevyRHP | 2 | 8 | -- | 5 | 3 | 0.340 |
| 5/31 | WachaRHP | 6 | 10 | -- | 8 | 5 | 0.418 |
| 5/30 | LugoRHP | 7 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -- |
Kansas City Royals23-36·@9-19·L7: 3-4
Minnesota Twins28-32·H17-16·L7: 4-3
O/U8.5
F5 O/U4.5
Home win53%
R/GKC 3.7 / MIN 4.7
Weather81F / 7mph L→R+0.2R
LineKC ML -105 ↑ -103
Both starters show recent regression concerns, with Wacha's last outing (6 ER in 5 IP) and Matthews' last start (7 ER in 4.3 IP) suggesting elevated volatility. The Twins have superior recent offensive form (4.2 runs/game vs KC's 3.2) and slightly better xwOBA metrics, while both pitchers' 30-day xFIPs are relatively similar (3.71 vs 3.52), making this a moderately high-scoring matchup.
MINmedium
MIN +1.5medium
Over 8.5medium
KC is estimated at ~4.8 runs: their last-5 avg is 5.6 (HOT) but wOBA 0.303 vs xwOBA 0.287 shows modest positive contact luck with some regression risk; Matthews' xFIP 3.52 (p25-p50, strong) over ~5.8 IP limits KC's ceiling, but his ERA 6.63 vs xFIP 3.52 (+3.11 gap) signals severe luck; MIN bullpen is heavily depleted (Rogers, Orze, Lawrence, Paredes all unavailable, avg rested xFIP 4.31 above league 4.19 RA/9). MIN is estimated at ~4.3 runs: Wacha's xFIP 3.71 (p25-p50) over ~5.8 IP is solid with ERA/xFIP gap of +0.79 suggesting mild improvement ahead; MIN wOBA 0.296 vs xwOBA 0.292 is sustainable but K% 27.9% above league median 21.0% is a meaningful suppressor; Wacha's reverse split (vs R wOBA 0.421) is concerning given MIN's lineup composition but KC bullpen loses Lange/Lynch (both unavailable). Combined estimate ~9.1 vs posted 8.5, with park factor 1.04 and +0.2 wind adding to the lean over. Market anchor: 78.5% -1.5 cover prob for KC seems inflated given MIN is the ML favorite (-115) — a market inconsistency; with ML estimates close (~4.8 KC vs ~4.3 MIN), KC wins by 2+ is not the dominant outcome.
KClow
MIN +1.5medium
Over 8.5medium
Under 4.5medium
81°F · wind 7 mph L→R+0.2 R
data unavailable
KC projects ~4.6-4.8 runs against Matthews (xFIP 3.52, p25-strong, but ERA 6.63 vs xFIP creating a +3.11 gap -- ERA near-noise, xFIP is the forward estimate; KC offense HOT at 5.6 R/5G but wOBA 0.303 vs xwOBA 0.287 suggests mild luck component, back-to-back fatigue applies). MIN projects ~4.2-4.4 runs against Wacha (xFIP 3.71, p25-strong, ERA 4.50 vs xFIP +0.79, ERA inflated; MIN avg 4.8 R/5G but volatile 6-0-6-9-3, xwOBA 0.292 vs wOBA 0.296 roughly sustainable, back-to-back fatigue applies). Combined estimate ~8.8-9.2 runs vs posted line 8.5. MIN bullpen is materially more depleted (Taylor Rogers, Eric Orze, Justin Lawrence, Mike Paredes all unavailable/limited) with rested arms at xFIP 4.31 vs league 4.19 and a platoon mismatch (1 LHP available vs 5 KC LHB); KC bullpen rested arms at xFIP 4.00, closer available, though Lynch/Lange unavailable and setup arm out. Sharp money annotation: large-dollar bets heavily on MIN at +42pp.
KCmedium
KC +1.5medium
Over 8.5medium
81°F · wind 7 mph L→R+0.2 R
data unavailable
Michael Wacha(RHP)
92.1 mph5d rest
W-L 4-7ERA 3.50 / 3.63 RA9WHIP 1.15IP 69
Avg opp offense: LOW
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/31 | TEX | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10.80 | L |
| 5/25 | NYY | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2.57 | L |
| 5/20 | BOS | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1.50 | L |
| 5/15 | STL | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4.50 | L |
| 5/9 | DET | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 3.71K% 22.7%BB% 8.6%HH% 38.4%
BP6/10 restedxFIP 4.002 out2 ltd
Zebby Matthews(RHP)
94.6 mph5d rest
W-L 1-3ERA 4.63WHIP 1.03IP 23
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/31 | PIT | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 14.54 | L |
| 5/25 | CWS | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4.50 | L |
| 5/19 | HOU | 6 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3.00 | L |
| 5/14 | MIA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 3.52K% 25.3%BB% 4.2%HH% 36.9%
BP6/12 restedxFIP 4.314 out2 ltd
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.58 | 4.8 R/G | 0.409 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.81 | 3.9 R/G | 0.421 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Jensen0.111x0.124--
2Jr.0.304x0.353--
3Pasquantino0.388x0.368--
4Perez0.291x0.364--
5Caglianone0.287x0.322--
6Collins0.273x0.289--
7Massey0.471x0.341--
8Loftin0.300x0.204--
9Isbel0.298x0.217--
Lineup avg 0.303xwOBA avg 0.287
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.69 | 4.7 R/G | 0.363 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.69 | 4.7 R/G | 0.363 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Buxton0.306x0.347--
2Lee0.369x0.285--
3Clemens0.355x0.329--
4Martin0.190x0.255--
5Larnach0.400x0.356--
6Keaschall0.324x0.335--
7Caratini0.330x0.358--
8Kreidler0.189x0.160--
9Outman0.200x0.201--
Lineup avg 0.296xwOBA avg 0.292
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | MorrisRHP | 8 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 0.336 |
| 6/3 | BurnsRHP | 5 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0.454 |
| 6/2 | AbbottLHP | 3 | 5 | -- | 11 | 9 | 0.405 |
| 6/1 | RichardsonRHP-- | 9 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0.533 |
| 5/31 | LeiterRHP | 3 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0.519 |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | LugoRHP | 6 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0.469 |
| 6/3 | FeddeRHP | 0 | 5 | -- | 8 | 2 | 0.302 |
| 6/2 | MartinRHP | 6 | 10 | -- | 4 | 4 | 0.394 |
| 6/1 | SandlinRHP | 9 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0.475 |
| 5/31 | AshcraftRHP | 3 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0.264 |
Milwaukee Brewers-1.5 (-103)33-22·@16-10·L7: 5-2
Colorado Rockies+1.5 (-116)23-35·H12-16·L7: 3-4
O/U11.5
F5 O/U6
Home win49%
R/GMIL 4.9 / COL 4.4
Weather86F / 19mph R→L+0.2R
LineMIL ML -152 ↓ -155
Ryan Feltner is in excellent form with a 2.70 xFIP and dominant recent start (6 IP, 0 ER), while Brandon Sproat shows regression concerns with declining performance over his last 3 starts and elevated xFIP of 4.09. Colorado's offense has been more consistent and productive against RHP (.356 wOBA) compared to Milwaukee (.310 wOBA), giving the Rockies a significant edge at home in Coors Field.
COLhigh
COL +1.5high
Over 11.5medium
MIL projects to score ~6.5-7.0 runs: their last-5 avg is 7.0 (HOT), xwOBA 0.312 vs RHP is sustainable, and they face Feltner who is first start off IL with only 2.0 IP projected (a massive workload concern) before handing off to a COL bullpen averaging xFIP 4.86 (well above league RA/9 of 4.19). COL projects to score ~6.0-6.5 runs: last-5 avg 7.0 (HOT, park-neutral 6.61), xwOBA 0.344 vs RHP is strong, but they face Sproat whose xFIP 4.09 (near p50, average) projects only ~4.3 IP, and MIL's bullpen is considerably better at xFIP 3.83 vs league 4.19. Combined estimate ~12.5-13.5 runs vs posted 11.5 total, driven by Feltner's near-certain early exit into a bad COL bullpen, Coors Field (1.15 factor), 86F heat, and +0.2 wind boost -- all pointing to a high-scoring game. Market has total unchanged at 11.5 and heavy public money on the over, but the Feltner workload signal (2.0 IP projected, first start off IL) is the dominant structural factor the line may be underpricing.
MILmedium
COL +1.5medium
Over 11.5high
Over 6high
86°F · wind 19 mph R→L+0.2 R
data unavailable
MIL projects ~5.8-6.2 runs against Feltner (2.0 IP projected, first start off IL, then COL's weak bullpen at xFIP 4.86 vs league 4.19) with a HOT offense averaging 7.0 R/G last 5 and xwOBA 0.312 confirming sustainability. COL projects ~5.0-5.4 runs against Sproat (4.3 IP projected, xFIP 4.09 near p50 avg, ERA 7.62 but +3.53 above xFIP indicating luck-driven inflation) with a HOT offense averaging 7.0 R/G park-neutral (6.61) and xwOBA 0.344 confirming real form. Combined estimate ~11.0-11.6 runs vs posted line of 11.5, very close. The dominant market signal is sharp money heavily on COL (home): 22% of bets but 79% of money on ML, 50% of bets but 97% of money on RL home_plus — large-dollar professional action on COL across both markets.
COLmedium
COL +1.5medium
Over 11.5medium
86°F · wind 19 mph R→L+0.2 R
data unavailable
Brandon Sproat(RHP)
94.9 mph6d rest
W-L 4-4ERA 5.12WHIP 1.32IP 39
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | HOU | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10.38 | L |
| 5/24 | LAD | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6.75 | L |
| 5/18 | CHC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5.79 | W |
| 5/12 | SD | 5 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5.06 | W |
| 5/6 | STL | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.00 | W |
xFIP 4.09K% 28.4%BB% 14.8%HH% 41.9%
BP6/9 restedxFIP 3.831 out2 ltd
Ryan Feltner(RHP)
6d rest
W-L 3-2ERA 5.48 / 5.87 RA9WHIP 1.39IP 23
Avg opp offense: ELIT
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | SF | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | W |
| 4/23 | SD | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9.00 | L |
| 4/19 | LAD | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3.18 | W |
| 4/12 | SD | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 13.50 | L |
| 4/7 | HOU | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6.75 | W |
xFIP 2.70K% 33.3%BB% 11.1%HH% 40.0%
BP11/11 restedxFIP 4.86
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.95 | 5.1 R/G | 0.370 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.91 | 5.5 R/G | 0.387 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Yelich0.293x0.269--
2Chourio0.521x0.436--
3Turang0.401x0.370--
4Contreras0.148x0.204--
5Bauers0.338x0.381--
6Mitchell0.374x0.298--
7Frelick0.268x0.263--
8Rengifo0.225x0.297--
9Hamilton0.320x0.293--
Lineup avg 0.321xwOBA avg 0.312
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 4.12 | 4.9 R/G | 0.397 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.48 | 5.4 R/G | 0.413 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1McCarthy0.217x0.249--
2Freeman0.388x0.384--
3Rumfield0.488x0.348--
4Goodman0.443x0.457--
5Johnston0.368x0.339--
6Castro0.381x0.324--
7Thompson0.300x0.346--
8Karros0.283x0.287--
9Julien0.310x0.360--
Lineup avg 0.353xwOBA avg 0.344
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | HouserRHP | 9 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0.427 |
| 6/3 | WebbRHP | 0 | 3 | -- | 5 | 2 | 0.249 |
| 6/2 | McDonaldRHP | 8 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.416 |
| 6/1 | RouppRHP | 16 | 18 | -- | 6 | 11 | 0.516 |
| 5/31 | ImaiRHP | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0.334 |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | UreñaRHP | 4 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0.402 |
| 6/2 | RodriguezRHP | 8 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 0.432 |
| 6/1 | SorianoRHP | 9 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 0.603 |
| 5/31 | RayLHP | 6 | 10 | -- | 10 | 5 | 0.370 |
| 5/30 | HouserRHP | 8 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 4 | -- |
Washington Nationals+1.5 (-180)28-30·@16-10·L7: 4-3
Arizona Diamondbacks-1.5 (+150)31-26·H18-12·L7: 4-3
O/U9.0
F5 O/U5
Home win45%
R/GWSH 4.6 / ARI 4.1
Weather101F / 14mph L→R+0.5R
LineWSH ML +113 ↑ +115
This matchup features contrasting pitcher trajectories: Griffin shows solid peripherals (3.08 xFIP, 28.1 K%) with recent inconsistency, while Kelly's elevated xFIP (4.41) and low strikeout rate (14.0 K%) suggest vulnerability despite recent run prevention. Arizona's offense has shown more consistent power (avg 4.3 runs, strong vs LHP at .386 wOBA) compared to Washington's volatility, but Griffin's strikeout prowess should limit damage.
ARImedium
WSH +1.5medium
Under 9medium
WSH is projected to score approximately 3.8-4.0 runs: their last-5 avg is 4.0, facing Kelly whose xFIP (4.41, p75 range - weak) over ~6.7 IP is a below-average suppressor, but WSH offense is COLD in contact momentum with xwOBA 0.321 vs wOBA 0.340 (slight luck element) and recent 10-game vs RHP avg only 4.3 R/G with cold recent trend (1,3,3,4,9). ARI is projected to score approximately 4.8-5.2 runs: Griffin's xFIP 3.08 (elite, p25 or better) is outstanding but ARI vs LHP last 7 games averages 6.6 R/G with xwOBA 0.434 and wOBA 0.362/xwOBA 0.359 showing genuine quality; however ARI offense is COLD (last 5: 3,0,5,4,2 = 2.8 avg) and on a back-to-back, which offsets the favorable split; combined ~8.6-9.2 runs vs posted 9.0 total with +0.5 weather boost (101F, wind out) pushing toward over territory.
ARImedium
WSH +1.5medium
Over 9medium
Under 5medium
101°F · wind 14 mph L→R+0.5 R
data unavailable
WSH projects ~3.8-4.0 runs: Griffin's xFIP 3.08 (p25, elite) over ~5.4 IP is the dominant factor, but Kelly's ERA 3.44 vs xFIP 4.41 (-0.97, deflated) signals likely regression, WSH lineup vs RHP wOBA 0.340/xwOBA 0.321 (moderate), and ARI bullpen xFIP 3.76 (below league RA/9 4.19, strong) limits upside. ARI projects ~4.2-4.5 runs: ARI offense vs LHP is genuinely strong (7-game avg 6.6 R/G, xwOBA 0.434 with wOBA 0.362/xwOBA 0.359 nearly aligned — sustainable), but Griffin's elite xFIP 3.08 over 5.4 IP suppresses that, WSH bullpen xFIP 4.29 is near league average, and ARI is on a back-to-back. Combined estimate ~8.0-8.5 runs vs posted 9.0, but weather (+0.5) and 101F heat push it toward 8.5-9.0. Sharp money strongly favors WSH away (84% of money, 21% of bets, +63pp gap) while the line barely moved (+113 to +115), suggesting the market has absorbed the signal without meaningful repricing.
WSHmedium
WSH +1.5medium
Under 9low
101°F · wind 14 mph L→R+0.5 R
data unavailable
Foster Griffin(LHP)
89.4 mph6d rest
W-L 8-3ERA 3.77 / 4.35 RA9WHIP 1.16IP 62
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | SD | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5.40 | W |
| 5/24 | ATL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/19 | NYM | 5 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 9.00 | W |
| 5/14 | CIN | 4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 18.69 | L |
| 5/8 | MIA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 1.29 | W |
xFIP 3.08K% 28.1%BB% 5.2%HH% 39.3%Form ↓ improving
BP11/11 restedxFIP 4.29
Merrill Kelly(RHP)
91.7 mph5d rest
W-L 5-4ERA 5.06WHIP 1.46IP 53
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/31 | SEA | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3.38 | L |
| 5/25 | SF | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2.57 | W |
| 5/20 | SF | 6 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4.50 | W |
| 5/15 | COL | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | W |
| 5/9 | NYM | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.29 | W |
xFIP 4.41K% 14.0%BB% 5.1%HH% 43.1%
BP8/8 restedxFIP 3.76
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 4.09 | 4.3 R/G | 0.396 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 4.17 | 4.5 R/G | 0.407 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Wood0.459x0.438--
2Crews0.300x0.273--
3Mead0.440x0.375--
4Abrams0.412x0.391--
5Young0.373x0.307--
6Lile0.237x0.254--
7Ruiz0.397x0.287--
8Jr.0.342x0.367--
9Nuñez0.100x0.199--
Lineup avg 0.340xwOBA avg 0.321
Last Known
| vs LHP L7 | 4.27 | 6.6 R/G | 0.434 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.43 | 3.7 R/G | 0.368 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs LHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Marte0.650x0.708--
2Carroll0.650x0.352--
3Moreno0.225x0.407--
4Arenado0.286x0.299--
5Waldschmidt0.381x0.355--
6Vargas0.100x0.184--
7Perdomo0.275x0.404--
8Fernandez0.129x0.218--
9Troy0.564x0.305--
Lineup avg 0.362xwOBA avg 0.359
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | MeyerRHP | 1 | 3 | -- | 9 | 4 | 0.302 |
| 6/2 | BacharRHP | 3 | 7 | -- | 11 | 1 | 0.356 |
| 6/1 | AlcantaraRHP | 3 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.412 |
| 5/31 | CanningRHP | 4 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.395 |
| 5/30 | KingRHP | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | WrobleskiLHP | 3 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0.448 |
| 6/3 | OhtaniRHP | 0 | 2 | -- | 9 | 2 | 0.285 |
| 6/2 | LauerLHP | 5 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.421 |
| 6/1 | SheehanRHP | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.332 |
| 5/31 | MillerRHP | 2 | 3 | -- | 9 | 3 | 0.313 |
New York Mets+1.5 (-200)24-33·@11-19·L7: 2-5
San Diego Padres-1.5 (+168)31-25·H15-12·L7: 2-5
O/U7.5
F5 O/U4
Home win43%
R/GNYM 3.9 / SD 2.7
Weather64F / 5mph out to CF
LineNYM ML +110 ↓ +110
Christian Scott has been excellent over his last three starts with a 3.93 xFIP and strong recent form (0 ER, 1 ER in last two outings), while Michael King shows regression signals with elevated hard-hit rate (31.6%) and recent struggles (4 ER in two of last three starts). The Mets offense significantly outperforms San Diego (0.350 xwOBA vs 0.298), creating a favorable matchup for NYM despite playing on the road.
NYMmedium
NYM +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
NYM projects to score approximately 4.2-4.5 runs: their last-5 avg of 5.6 is supported by sustainable xwOBA (0.342 vs wOBA 0.308), but King's xFIP of 3.49 (p25, strong) over ~5.1 IP suppresses that, and the SD bullpen (avg xFIP 3.74, below league RA/9 4.19) is quality despite limited depth (only 4 rested arms). SD projects to score approximately 2.4-2.7 runs: their last-5 avg of 2.8 is weak, their 10-game vs-RHP avg is 2.7, xwOBA of 0.305 is uninspiring, they face Christian Scott whose xFIP 3.93 (p50, average) with a declining trend and massive ERA-to-xFIP deflation (-1.48, ERA 2.45 vs xFIP 3.93) signals likely regression, but SD is on a back-to-back and their bullpen has 3 arms limited from yesterday. Combined estimate ~6.7-7.2 runs vs posted 7.5, leaning under. Market is stable (no meaningful line movement), and the dominant factor is SD's anemic recent offense against a neutral park (Petco 0.97) with suppressive weather.
NYMmedium
NYM +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
Under 4medium
64°F · wind 5 mph out to CF+0.0 R
data unavailable
NYM is estimated at approximately 3.8-4.0 runs: HOT offense (5.6 avg last 5) but xwOBA 0.342 vs wOBA 0.308 suggests sustainable contact, tempered by Michael King's elite xFIP 3.49 (p25, strong) across ~5.1 IP and a rested SD bullpen (xFIP 3.74, better than league 4.19 RA/9) covering ~3.9 IP; SD back-to-back fatigue and a depleted pen (only 4 rested arms, 3 limited yesterday) push the estimate to roughly 2.4-2.6 runs: cold offense (2.8 avg last 5, 2.7 avg last 10 vs RHP), xwOBA 0.305 sustainable but unremarkable, facing Christian Scott whose ERA 2.45 is well below his xFIP 3.93 (ERA deflated, regression risk) with a declining xFIP trend (3.29->3.93) and elevated BB% 11.1. Combined estimate ~6.3-6.6 runs vs posted 7.5 total. Sharp money is notably on NYM ML (money 51% vs bets 35%, +16pp), a moderate signal toward the visitor.
NYMmedium
NYM +1.5medium
Under 7.5medium
64°F · wind 5 mph out to CF+0.0 R
data unavailable
Christian Scott(RHP)
94.0 mph6d rest
W-L 5-2ERA 2.97 / 3.26 RA9WHIP 1.39IP 30
Avg opp offense: AVG
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | MIA | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 1.80 | W |
| 5/24 | MIA | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.00 | L |
| 5/18 | WSH | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6.75 | W |
| 5/13 | DET | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3.86 | W |
| 5/6 | COL | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1.93 | L |
xFIP 3.93K% 25.4%BB% 11.1%HH% 21.1%Form ↑ declining
BP11/11 restedxFIP 4.07
Michael King(RHP)
93.2 mph6d rest
W-L 5-6ERA 3.29 / 3.43 RA9WHIP 1.14IP 63
Avg opp offense: HIGH
| Date | Opp | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | W/L |
|---|
| 5/30 | WSH | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6.00 | L |
| 5/24 | ATH | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9.82 | L |
| 5/18 | LAD | 7 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.00 | W |
| 5/13 | MIL | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.59 | W |
| 5/8 | STL | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1.50 | L |
xFIP 3.49K% 29.2%BB% 12.3%HH% 31.6%
BP4/8 restedxFIP 3.741 out3 ltd
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.64 | 3.3 R/G | 0.426 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.98 | 4.5 R/G | 0.452 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Benge0.255x0.403--
2Bichette0.233x0.277--
3Soto0.352x0.459--
4Young0.473x0.451--
5Baty0.185x0.215--
6Semien0.300x0.372--
7Ewing0.358x0.335--
8Melendez0.348x0.298--
9Torrens0.265x0.268--
Lineup avg 0.308xwOBA avg 0.342
Last Known
| vs RHP L10 | 3.68 | 2.7 R/G | 0.393 xwOBA |
| L10 overall | 3.50 | 2.6 R/G | 0.396 xwOBA |
wOBA / xwOBA vs RHP (15-day) | career vs SP
1Jr.0.420x0.397--
2Sheets0.375x0.356--
3Machado0.186x0.306--
4France0.391x0.296--
5Merrill0.267x0.400--
6Bogaerts0.244x0.240--
7Andujar0.200x0.231--
8Fermin0.127x0.217--
9Johnson0.360x0.301--
Lineup avg 0.285xwOBA avg 0.305
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/3 | KirbyRHP | 7 | 14 | -- | 10 | 1 | 0.366 |
| 6/2 | GilbertRHP | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 0.485 |
| 6/1 | HancockRHP | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0.449 |
| 5/31 | KingLHP | 10 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 0.568 |
| 5/30 | PhillipsRHP | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -- |
| Date | Starter | R | H | HR | K | BB | xwOBA |
|---|
| 6/4 | WheelerRHP | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0.482 |
| 6/3 | SánchezLHP | 2 | 6 | -- | 11 | 3 | 0.381 |
| 6/2 | NolaRHP | 2 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0.367 |
| 5/31 | LittellRHP | 2 | 6 | -- | 8 | 3 | 0.366 |
| 5/30 | GriffinLHP | 4 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 8 | -- |
